Overview
When Exxon Mobil and Chevron hold analyst calls Friday to present fourth-quarter and full-year results, geopolitics - not only commodity prices or near-term operational numbers - are likely to dominate the conversation. The recent U.S. capture and removal of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has created a potentially significant, but highly complex, avenue for U.S. oil companies to tap Venezuela's substantial crude reserves after President Donald Trump outlined ambitions for roughly $100 billion in new American investment to revive and oversee Venezuelan oil production.
That geopolitical turn comes against a backdrop of heightened global tensions and energy-market volatility. In the fourth quarter of 2025, renewed U.S.-China trade friction and Russia-Ukraine peace talks helped push oil prices around, and recent anti-government protests in Iran plus the prospect of a U.S. response have drawn investor attention to supply-side risks.
What investors want to know
Market participants expect the Venezuelan question to loom especially large for Chevron, as it remains the only major U.S. oil company actively operating in the country. Stephanie Link, chief investment strategist at Hightower Advisors and a significant shareholder in both Chevron and Exxon, said the topic will likely surface across calls for U.S. majors.
Analysts have quantified Venezuela's current contribution to Chevron's free cash flow. Jason Gabelman, managing director of energy equity research at TD Cowen, estimated Venezuelan production contributes roughly 1% to 2% of Chevron's cash flow from operations today, and that further production growth could add an incremental 1% to 2% over the coming years.
Others urge caution in assigning value to Venezuelan opportunities. Jean Ann Salisbury of Bank of America Global Research noted that while Chevron occupies a pivotal position with existing personnel, contractual relationships, and payment systems in Venezuela, there is insufficient visibility to firmly attribute long-term value to the country within Chevron's business.
Given the protracted timeline typical of oil projects and the many uncertainties around the political transition and investment protections, analysts said it is improbable that companies will outline substantial, definitive plans for Venezuelan operations during the upcoming earnings calls.
Exxon: Guyana access question and earnings sensitivity
For Exxon, investor inquiries are expected to include access to additional portions of the Stabroek Block offshore Guyana. Bank of America's Salisbury highlighted that about 30% of the prolific Stabroek field remains unexplored because of territorial disputes between Guyana and Venezuela. Exxon leads the consortium operating Stabroek with a 45% stake, while Chevron holds a 30% interest.
Exxon has also warned that weaker crude prices could materially reduce its upstream earnings. The company has previously cautioned that lower oil prices might cut fourth-quarter upstream earnings by up to $1.2 billion compared with the prior quarter. Wall Street consensus compiled by LSEG anticipates Exxon will report adjusted earnings per share of $1.68, a rise of $0.01 from the year-ago quarter.
Exxon CEO Darren Woods described Venezuela as "uninvestable" at a White House summit earlier this month and emphasized the need for investment protections following past expropriations - a comment investors are likely to revisit when management addresses geopolitical risk and asset security.
Chevron: Venezuela spotlight and Tengiz exposure
Chevron will be watched closely on Venezuela, but the company also faces exposure to disruptions elsewhere. Kazakhstan's Tengiz field, a major asset for a joint venture led by Chevron in which Exxon holds a stake, suffered a production shutdown this month. The outage followed an attack on the field's main export route by Ukrainian naval drones.
Analysts expect Chevron to report adjusted earnings per share of $1.46 for the fourth quarter, down 29% year-over-year. That drop, together with geopolitical vulnerabilities, frames investor scrutiny of Chevron's near-term outlook and capital allocation priorities.
Market and commodity context
Brent crude prices averaged $63.08 per barrel in the October-to-December quarter, a decrease of 7.5% from the prior three months as concerns about oversupply lingered. Meanwhile, U.S. natural gas prices rose 32% to an average of $4.04 per million British thermal units in the fourth quarter, driven by colder weather and stronger liquefied natural gas export demand. These commodity moves are likely to influence the upstream earnings and guidance that both Exxon and Chevron present.
Investors will also listen intently for any changes to the companies' capital-return policies. Link of Hightower Advisors said she does not expect adjustments to dividends or buyback plans for 2026, but noted that management guidance around dividends and buybacks remains important.
Outlook for calls
Exxon and Chevron are scheduled to report Friday, while European majors including Shell, TotalEnergies and BP will publish results next month. Given the breadth of geopolitical questions and the long lead times for large oil projects, analysts expect management teams to provide limited new detail on potential plans for Venezuela or accelerated timelines for development. Instead, investors are likely to come away from earnings calls with a clearer sense of how managements are framing geopolitical risks, production disruptions such as the Tengiz shutdown, and the impacts of recent commodity price movements on near-term earnings and cash flow.
Editors' note: The companies cited include Exxon Mobil and Chevron, with mentions of Shell, TotalEnergies and BP in the broader earnings schedule.