Stock Markets March 31, 2026

Future Plc trims full-year outlook as Google-derived traffic drop hits margins

Bath-based publisher cuts fiscal 2026 guidance after audience shifts erode higher-margin ad and e-commerce income

By Marcus Reed
Future Plc trims full-year outlook as Google-derived traffic drop hits margins

Future Plc said in a trading update that a larger-than-expected reduction in audience traffic originating from Google has weighed on its higher-margin revenue streams, prompting the company to reduce full-year guidance by 15% to 20%. The publisher expects first-half EBITDA margins to be materially lower than last year and lowered its fiscal 2026 margin expectations.

Key Points

  • Future cut full-year guidance by 15% to 20% after weaker-than-expected first-half trading influenced by lower Google-derived audience traffic.
  • Direct advertising revenue is still expected to grow year-over-year, while declines at Go.Compare and the B2B division eased in H1 and are expected to turn to growth in H2.
  • Higher-margin revenue streams, including programmatic advertising and e-commerce, have been hit most by the audience shift, leading to lower EBITDA margin expectations for H1 and the full fiscal year.

Future Plc said on Tuesday that it is revising down its full-year outlook for fiscal 2026 after reporting a softer trading performance in the first half. The Bath-based media group attributed the change to a more pronounced than anticipated shift away from audience traffic coming via Google, which has hit higher-margin revenue lines.

The company said direct advertising revenue is still expected to show year-over-year growth, while revenue declines at its price-comparison site Go.Compare and its B2B division moderated in the first half. Future added that it expects those areas to return to growth in the second half of the year.

However, the updated trading picture highlights the disproportionate effect that the loss of Google-derived audience has had on the company's mix of revenue. Future told investors that programmatic advertising and e-commerce revenues - categories that typically carry higher margins - have been negatively impacted by the audience shift.

As a result, Future now projects first-half EBITDA margins in the range of 24% to 25%, down from 30% in fiscal 2025. For the full fiscal year, the company reduced its EBITDA margin guidance to 25% to 27%, a downward revision from its prior expectation of stable margins at 30%.

The group also adjusted its topline expectations. Future said it now anticipates second-half organic revenue to decline year-over-year by a low-single digit percentage. That is a reversal of the company's earlier guidance, which had signalled modest organic revenue growth weighted toward the second half.

Overall, the company trimmed its full-year guidance by 15% to 20%. Management emphasised that the shift in audience sources has altered the revenue mix, curbing those higher-margin streams even as some direct advertising and certain divisions show resilience or improvement.

The update leaves several outcomes clear from the first-half trading picture: direct advertising remains a growth area year-over-year, Go.Compare and the B2B arm moderated their declines and are expected to recover in the second half, while programmatic ad and e-commerce revenue streams have been the most affected by the audience shift.


Bottom line - The company has lowered both near-term margin expectations and its full-year revenue trajectory after audience losses from Google reduced higher-margin revenues, prompting a 15% to 20% cut to guidance and a notable decline in expected EBITDA margins.

Risks

  • Reduced Google-derived audience could continue to pressure higher-margin streams such as programmatic ads and e-commerce, impacting media and digital advertising sectors.
  • Second-half organic revenue is expected to decline by a low-single digit percentage year-over-year, introducing uncertainty for full-year top-line performance in the publishing and e-commerce segments.
  • Lowered EBITDA margin guidance increases earnings volatility for investors exposed to the media and online advertising markets.

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