Europe's airlines appear to have met - and may have slightly surpassed - the bloc's 2025 target that required 2% of jet fuel supplied at regional airports to be sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), according to comments from a regional regulator and a European Union official. The development, described as previously unreported and slated for formal confirmation in a report later this year, would mark a rapid rise from last year's 0.6% uptake.
Florian Guillermet, head of the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA), which monitors implementation of the SAF targets, said in an interview in Cologne: "We believe we will be at or even above the 2% in 2025." EASA has said it will publish official data on SAF use across Europe after the summer.
A senior EU official, speaking on condition of anonymity, echoed that assessment: "We will end at above 2% in Europe for 2025. We see a clear supply response to the mandate." The official added that sticking to the mandates has been important: "It is very important to stick to the mandates. We have proven so far that we were right."
The SAF mandate requires 2% of fuel made available at regional airports to be SAF in 2025, rising to 6% by 2030. The regulation also sets specific requirements for synthetic SAF (eSAF): it must account for 1.2% of total jet fuel from 2030, increasing to 5% by 2035.
The apparent achievement comes after airlines had repeatedly warned that the targets would be missed, citing limited supply and high costs. Airlines for Europe (A4E) - whose members include Ryanair, Lufthansa and British Airways-owner IAG - has publicly urged regulators to scale back the eSAF requirement on those grounds. The European Commission, however, has made clear it does not intend to roll back the eSAF mandate, while acknowledging that more work is needed to improve affordability and accessibility of the fuels.
Guillermet reinforced the Commission's stance about maintaining the rules: "The mandate is a mandate, so it is in place. Personally, I don’t see any reason why it should change." The comment echoes recent public remarks from the EU transport commissioner.
Attention on jet fuel has intensified amid higher oil prices and supply disruptions linked to the Iran war, factors that have raised the stakes for fuel security and cost in aviation. The potential exceedance of the 2% target suggests a rapid increase in SAF availability and uptake this year relative to 2024, when adoption stood at 0.6%.
Official confirmation of 2025 SAF figures will arrive when EASA publishes its post-summer report. Until then, the regulator and the anonymous EU official described the current indications as evidence of a tangible supply response to the regulatory mandate.
Summary
Regulatory statements indicate Europe may have reached or exceeded its 2% SAF mandate for 2025, a marked rise from 0.6% the previous year. EASA will publish final figures after the summer. The result comes amid debate over synthetic SAF rules and industry concerns about cost and supply.
Key points
- Preliminary reports from EASA and an EU official suggest SAF use in Europe hit - and possibly exceeded - 2% in 2025, up from 0.6% the year before.
- The EU requires 2% SAF at regional airports in 2025, rising to 6% by 2030, with eSAF accounting for 1.2% from 2030 and 5% by 2035 - measures that affect airlines, fuel producers and airport operators.
- Airlines, represented by A4E - whose members include Ryanair, Lufthansa and British Airways-owner IAG - have sought a rollback of the eSAF component, arguing supply and cost challenges; the European Commission has refused to relax the requirement.
Risks and uncertainties
- Official confirmation is pending - EASA will publish definitive SAF usage data after the summer, and current reports are based on agency and EU official statements.
- Industry concerns about limited eSAF supply and elevated costs remain unresolved, posing potential headwinds for airlines' operating margins and fare structures if price pressures persist.
- Geopolitical factors lifting oil prices and disrupting supplies - cited in relation to the Iran war - can increase fuel cost volatility, affecting airlines' cost bases and the competitiveness of SAF versus conventional jet fuel.