Stock Markets March 16, 2026

Elevator and Building-Supply Stocks Gain Traction Despite Tepid 2026 Outlook

J.P. Morgan highlights defensive growth attributes across the vertical while flagging mixed guidance from major players

By Avery Klein
Elevator and Building-Supply Stocks Gain Traction Despite Tepid 2026 Outlook

European elevator and building-supply names have drawn renewed investor attention even though several leading groups issued modest guidance for 2026. J.P. Morgan points to the sector's defensive growth profile and improving residential construction dynamics as reasons for conviction across select stocks despite management cautions.

Key Points

  • J.P. Morgan favors select elevator and building-supply stocks for their defensive growth profiles despite underwhelming 2026 guidance from several issuers.
  • Schindler reported Q4 margins of 13.5% (up 100 basis points) and guided to low-to-mid single-digit constant currency sales growth with a 12% reported EBIT margin for the year; J.P. Morgan is "overweight" with a CHF 340 target.
  • Kone delivered the sector’s strongest book-to-bill at 1.40x and guided 2026 comparable sales growth of 2-6% and an adjusted EBIT margin of 12.3-13%, with J.P. Morgan at "neutral" and a €65 price target.

European equities in the elevator and broader building-supplies space have moved higher in investor priority as analysts weighed recent quarterly results and 2026 guidance. While the headline outlook from several market leaders disappointed some investors, J.P. Morgan argues that the industry’s defensive revenue characteristics and improving end-market trends support selective exposure.

Schindler, the Swiss lift and escalator manufacturer, reported a mixed fourth quarter with orders roughly in line with expectations and margins modestly better than a year earlier. The company recorded a margin of 13.5% in Q4, up 100 basis points year-on-year. For the full year, Schindler’s management guided to constant currency sales growth in the low-to-mid single-digit area and a reported EBIT margin of 12%. J.P. Morgan described that guidance as disappointing, but nevertheless assigns Schindler an "overweight" rating with a CHF 340 price target, which implies roughly 16% upside from prevailing levels. The broker underlines the stock’s defensive traits and relative valuation as attractive amid macroeconomic uncertainty.

Finland’s Kone posted stronger order metrics in the quarter, with a book-to-bill of 1.40x, the highest in the sector. The company set comparable sales growth guidance for 2026 of 2-6% and projected an adjusted EBIT margin between 12.3% and 13% for the year. J.P. Morgan maintains a "neutral" rating on Kone with a €65 price target, approximately in line with the current share price. Although the guidance similarly fell short of some expectations, the robust order intake at least provides reassurance on near-term revenue visibility.

Sweden’s Assa Abloy, which has a broader footprint across residential and non-residential access solutions rather than being a pure elevator play, reported organic sales growth of 4% in Q4 and margins of 16.8%, up 33 basis points year-on-year. J.P. Morgan ranks Assa Abloy as "overweight" with a SKr 430 price target, representing about 13% upside. The bank lists Assa Abloy among its higher-conviction calls going into 2026, citing support from a solidifying recovery in European residential construction volumes.

Rexel, the French electrical distribution group with significant exposure to building activity, also features in the thematic investment case. The company reported organic sales growth of 4% in the second half of 2025 and guided to 3-5% same-day sales growth in 2026 alongside an adjusted EBITA margin of roughly 6.2%. J.P. Morgan carries an "overweight" rating on Rexel with a €41.8 target, implying about 16% upside, and views the stock as a direct play on the revival in both residential and non-residential construction across Europe.

Across the coverage, J.P. Morgan’s positioning reflects a preference for stocks that combine defensive growth profiles with differentiated exposure to a European construction recovery. The broker’s mix of ratings and price targets indicates conviction in some names even as company-level guidance for 2026 left analysts wanting more clarity on margin and sales trajectories.

Investors considering exposure to this cluster should weigh the defensive aspects highlighted by J.P. Morgan against the modest near-term guidance from several companies and the sensitivity of many of these businesses to construction activity.

Risks

  • Several companies provided conservative or disappointing guidance for 2026, which creates uncertainty around near-term sales and margin performance; this affects elevator manufacturers and building-supply firms.
  • Sector performance remains linked to the pace of the European residential and non-residential construction recovery; any slowdown in construction volumes would directly impact firms like Assa Abloy and Rexel.
  • Macro volatility could diminish the defensive appeal and valuation support cited by J.P. Morgan, introducing downside risk across stocks that are rated "overweight."

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