Deutsche Bank has revised its recommendations for technology equities, elevating its view on software companies after concluding that fears around AI-driven disruption have eased and earnings momentum remains solid.
Analysts Maximilian Uleer, Carolin Raab and Francesca Mazzali highlighted underperformance in software stocks over the past six months across both Europe and the United States. "Up until the Iran conflict, 'AI disruption' caused the European Software sector to fall by 23% and US Software to fall by 19% over the past 6 months," they wrote, using those declines to frame the recent repricing of the segment.
The note from the bank flags an unusual valuation dynamic: software firms are trading at historically low premiums relative to the broader market. "Current valuations imply that consensus believes that Software companies will no longer outgrow the broader index. Facts are telling a different story," Deutsche Bank wrote, pointing to earnings trends that it sees as inconsistent with that market view.
On the earnings front, the bank noted that U.S. software companies delivered a 29% increase in earnings in the fourth quarter, and that analyst expectations for 2026 have been revised higher. In Europe, Deutsche Bank said software earnings forecasts appear to be stabilizing, describing them as showing signs of bottoming out.
Deutsche Bank also challenged the prevailing narrative around AI risk. The analysts argued that commentary has overemphasized potential negative impacts from AI while underrecognizing operational benefits, such as lower programming costs and improved products. They added: "We have still not come across a single Software company that expects a negative revenue effect from AI in 2026."
As a consequence of these observations, the bank adjusted its positioning in the sector - upgrading technology from Underweight to Neutral and moving to an overweight stance on software within the tech coverage. Deutsche Bank characterized the recent pullback in software equities as a potential buying opportunity and concluded that "AI disruption worries have peaked," identifying software as a focal area for investors seeking growth in 2026.
Contextual note: The bank's changes combine valuation signals, recent earnings performance and company-level commentary on AI to justify the recommendation shifts.