Construction equipment retail sales in the first quarter of 2026 edged up in the low-single-digit range compared with the same period a year earlier, narrowly beating the early projections from dealers surveyed by DA Davidson in March. The results represent a modest rebound from a prior low-single-digit decline recorded in the third quarter.
Looking ahead, the dealers polled expect second-quarter sales to be essentially flat year-over-year. Their outlook for 2027 is more optimistic on average, with respondents projecting mid-single-digit growth in heavy equipment retail sales. Of the approximately 20 dealers in the sample, only two anticipate a decline in 2027.
Dealers that carry Caterpillar products expected slightly weaker expansion, with growth for that subset closer to the low-single-digit range.
DA Davidson’s Dealership Sentiment Indicator remained inside the growth quadrant for the first quarter - a position it has held since the firm began quarterly checks in 2023. However, the overall reading moved nearer to the downturn quadrant than in previous surveys. The shift was driven chiefly by the future component of the indicator, which fell to its lowest recorded level since the tracking began.
Respondent commentary showed notable divergence. Some dealers described conditions as strong and robust, while others voiced concerns about the broader economic picture. The survey noted this spread of views is the widest recorded in the nearly four-year history of the quarterly checks.
The report also referenced the market position of Caterpillar, whose shares trade close to all-time highs. DA Davidson attributed part of that performance to datacenter demand and a recovery in mining equipment. The firm estimates that North American construction accounts for roughly 20% to 25% of Caterpillar’s equipment revenues.
In sum, the survey paints a picture of modest near-term retail improvement in construction equipment, tempered by weakening forward-looking sentiment and a broad range of dealer expectations.