MongoDB shares climbed more than 2% in premarket trading on Tuesday after Citi analysts reiterated a Buy rating and lifted their target price to $450 from $400. The firm pointed to accelerating demand tied to artificial intelligence use cases as a key driver for the company’s cloud-hosted database, Atlas.
Shares of MongoDB have been under pressure this year, trading roughly 30% below prior levels. The decline has been attributed in part to a disappointing outlook the company issued in March, which forecast first-quarter profit below analyst estimates and signaled slower revenue growth for Atlas.
Citi’s analysts said MongoDB appears to be - in their words - "bucking the trend of a weaker traditional software budget environment, as more agents and 'vibe-coded' applications expand MDB’s universe by driving demand for write-heavy, schema-evolving operational workloads." The firm explained that "vibe-coding" refers to rapidly building software with the help of AI coding assistants.
"Put simply, we see MongoDB as both a direct and indirect beneficiary of the explosive growth of frontier labs and AI coding tools," the analysts wrote.
According to Citi, the firm conducted proprietary customer and partner checks that indicated meaningful Atlas usage ramps are already taking place in the current quarter at several prominent AI customers. Those checks formed the basis of an updated AI customer model.
Using that model, Citi estimates that the intensifying AI momentum could lift first-quarter Atlas growth by roughly two percentage points relative to the fourth quarter, which would push Atlas growth above 30%. The analysts wrote that they expect that figure could increase further by year-end.
On the strength of those findings, Citi raised its Atlas estimates substantially above MongoDB’s own guidance and above Street consensus, modeling 30% growth for both the first quarter and for the full fiscal year 2027.
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