Shares of Celldex Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ:CLDX) rose 4.6% on Monday after Wolfe Research shifted its rating on the company from Underperform to Outperform and set a $44.00 price target.
In research commentary, analyst Andy Chen said the shares had performed poorly through 2025 even as the company released several positive updates, but that he sees a more constructive setup heading into 2026. Chen said the stock should find stronger catalysts next year and that investors may be more receptive to a depressed valuation.
"Despite a series of very positive news, CLDX traded poorly in 2025 amid wholesector euphoria (no chasers on positive news). Stock will have a better catalyst setup in 2026, and behaviorally, investors may respond better to depressed valuation," Chen wrote.
The analyst highlighted recent market behavior as evidence the shares are now reacting more to company-specific news. Celldex posted a roughly 24% gain on February 25 after announcing completion of enrollment in its Phase 3 chronic spontaneous urticaria trial, and that advance has been retained even as the broader small-cap complex has weakened.
Looking ahead, Chen flagged data from a prurigo indication expected in summer 2026 as a forthcoming positive catalyst. He also compared Celldex's investigational therapy barzolvolimab to Dupixent on several endpoints, noting that barzolvolimab often leads substantially in efficacy measures including WI-NRS ≥4pt, WI-NRS change, and IGA0/1.
Wolfe Research noted that institutional expectations for barzolvolimab to reach more than $2 billion in peak sales have not shifted over the past two years. The firm described Celldex as trading at a severe valuation discount on multiples and expressed a high probability that a Phase 3 result in the fourth quarter will be positive and support approval.
Chen did caution that atopic dermatitis results are facing a high benchmark and are therefore more likely to underwhelm. Nonetheless, he characterized the current combination of greater stock reactivity and the upcoming prurigo readout as producing a more comfortable risk-reward profile for investors holding through the Phase 3 chronic spontaneous urticaria readout around year-end.
Sector impact: Biotech and small-cap healthcare equities are the primary sectors directly affected by this development, as investor sentiment toward clinical-catalyst biotechs and valuation-sensitive small-cap names may be influenced.