BTIG projects a material uplift to SoftBank Group Corp.'s reported net asset value tied to the company's December purchase of OpenAI equity, but notes the headline gain is reduced once fund economics and earlier accounting entries are taken into account.
SoftBank completed a $22.5 billion forward purchase of OpenAI equity in late December as part of a planned $30 billion commitment for 2025. That December tranche was executed at a $300 billion post-money valuation. BTIG expects SoftBank to carry the position at a more recent OpenAI valuation of about $500 billion - a difference that implies approximately a 67% increase on the capital deployed by SoftBank.
Applying that uplift to the $22.5 billion investment produces a gross paper gain of roughly $15 billion for the quarter. However, the stake sits inside SoftBank Vision Fund 2, where SoftBank retains 83% of the economics and the remaining 17% is attributable to Masayoshi Son. After allocating that split, the gain attributable to SoftBank shareholders declines to about $12.45 billion.
BTIG emphasizes that investors also need to recognize an earlier, $8 billion unrealized gain tied to the rising value of the forward contract itself that had already been recorded. Subtracting that previously recognized gain prevents double counting and reduces the incremental increase in SoftBank's equity and net asset value to approximately $4.45 billion.
Using this adjustment, BTIG arrives at a fair value mark for SoftBank's OpenAI holding of $54.9 billion. BTIG says that figure reflects the prior carrying value at the end of the second fiscal quarter, the December $22.5 billion investment, an earlier $1.45 billion capital infusion in October, and the newly calculated equity gain.
After incorporating the OpenAI fair value adjustment, BTIG estimates SoftBank's total net asset value at about $189 billion, with OpenAI representing roughly 30% of the group's NAV under that math. For contrast, BTIG notes that OpenAI accounts for less than 5% of Microsoft's market capitalization.
BTIG maintains a Buy rating on SoftBank Group and a ¥5,400 price target. The firm says its recommendation is based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation that applies a holding company discount to net asset value.
Accountings and mechanics
The analysis laid out by BTIG highlights how headline valuation marks on large private investments can differ from the net benefit that accrues to a parent company once fund-level economics and prior accounting entries are considered. A valuation step-up at the asset level can create a gross paper gain, but fund ownership percentages and earlier unrealized gains are key to determining the net effect on consolidated equity and NAV.
Implications for investors
BTIG’s view produces a sizable fair value mark for the OpenAI holding while also illustrating why the incremental NAV benefit to SoftBank shareholders is smaller than the raw paper uplift. Investors and analysts will need to reconcile the gross gain implied by moving from a $300 billion to a $500 billion valuation with the allocation rules inside Vision Fund 2 and with any gains already booked related to the forward contract.