Stock Markets January 27, 2026

Big Tech Earnings Open With AI Scrutiny as Alphabet Pulls Ahead

Microsoft and Meta must show that large AI investments translate into tangible growth while Alphabet's momentum pressures rivals

By Derek Hwang MSFT META AMZN GOOGL AAPL
Big Tech Earnings Open With AI Scrutiny as Alphabet Pulls Ahead
MSFT META AMZN GOOGL AAPL

Microsoft and Meta begin the major technology earnings cycle this week facing heightened investor scrutiny over whether their heavy artificial intelligence spending will deliver another year of robust growth. Alphabet's recent gains, driven by strong reception to its Gemini 3 model and a new deal to power Apple's Siri, have shifted market attention toward Google as a front-runner in the AI race. Analysts and surveys underscore lingering doubts about near-term commercial benefits from AI investments even as companies boost spending.

Key Points

  • Microsoft and Meta open Big Tech earnings under pressure to demonstrate returns from substantial AI investments; Alphabet and Amazon follow next week - Technology and Financial markets
  • Major tech firms are expected to increase AI spending by about 30% to over $500 billion this year, intensifying investor scrutiny - Technology and Corporate capital allocation
  • Cloud revenue is forecast to grow across providers, with Google Cloud at 35%, Azure at 38.8%, and AWS at 21.1% in the October-December quarter - Cloud computing and Enterprise IT

Microsoft and Meta are the first of the major technology companies to report quarterly results this week, stepping into a market that is closely watching whether hefty investments in artificial intelligence can sustain growth. Investors are weighing whether the big bets made by those companies - and by their peers including Amazon and Alphabet - will translate into revenue or cost improvements in the near term.

Collectively, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Alphabet are forecast to raise their AI budgets by about 30% this year, taking total AI spending to more than $500 billion, an unprecedented level of investment that is intensifying scrutiny of the returns those expenditures will generate. Skepticism over the distribution of benefits and the pace at which commercial gains will arrive has already influenced stock performance, with Microsoft and Meta both falling more than 6% in the last three months of 2025 while Amazon recorded a modest 5.1% gain in the same period following its November agreement with OpenAI.

By contrast, Alphabet has enjoyed a strong rally, with shares climbing roughly 29% over the quarter after market reception to Google’s Gemini 3 model. That momentum was further supported by a deal in which Alphabet agreed to power Apple’s refreshed Siri, moves that investors say strengthen Google’s position given the company’s integrated search and device ecosystems.

"Alphabet has the upper hand in the AI race as investors recognize that proprietary ecosystems, such as Apple and Search in Google, are tough to penetrate," said David Wagner, head of equities at Aptus Capital Advisors.

Microsoft and Meta will report results on Wednesday, while Alphabet and Amazon are scheduled to disclose earnings next week. The coming reports will include cloud and advertising metrics that market participants view as key indicators of how deeply AI is being monetized.

Cloud growth expectations

Analysts expect continued strong growth in cloud revenue across the major providers, though at varying rates. LSEG data suggests Google Cloud revenue growth accelerated to about 35% in the October-December quarter, up from 33.5% in the prior quarter. Microsoft’s Azure is forecast to rise 38.8% in the same period, a step down from a 40% gain reported in the previous three months. Amazon Web Services is expected to show growth of about 21.1%, a modest increase from 20.2% earlier.

Despite the robust cloud expansion, questions remain about how quickly enterprises will convert AI experimentation into measurable business outcomes. A recent survey conducted by PwC of 4,454 chief executives found that more than half of respondents reported seeing neither revenue nor cost benefits from their AI investments so far, a datapoint investors have cited when assessing the risk that current activity could resemble an investment bubble rather than an immediate productivity boost.

Microsoft’s management has acknowledged such concerns publicly. Speaking at Davos, chief executive Satya Nadella said: "For this not to be a bubble by definition, it requires that the benefits of this are much more evenly spread." Morgan Stanley analysts have characterized sentiment toward Microsoft as facing "a wall of worry," driven by intensified competition for Azure and OpenAI, in which Microsoft holds a 27% stake.

Operationally, Microsoft has warned of AI capacity constraints that it expects to persist at least through June. Separately, a jump in memory chip prices has clouded the outlook for the PC market, a key part of Microsoft’s personal computing segment that includes Windows and Xbox. Overall, Microsoft’s revenue for the October-December quarter is projected to have increased around 15.3% to $80.27 billion, marking the slowest growth pace in three quarters.

Alphabet, Meta and Amazon under the microscope

Alphabet is poised to benefit from rapid AI integration into search as well as from a steady advertising market, with consensus estimates pointing to a 15.5% rise in revenue to $111.37 billion for the quarter. In October, Alphabet opened a new commercial avenue by agreeing to supply Anthropic, an AI company it backs, with its Tensor Processing Units. That deal, described as worth tens of billions of dollars, represents a shift from Alphabet’s prior practice of keeping those chips reserved for internal use.

Meta is expected to report revenue growth of about 20.6% to $58.35 billion, driven in part by AI enhancements to ad search and recommendation systems. However, the company’s substantial hiring of AI talent has increased costs and is anticipated to slow profit expansion to the weakest rate in roughly three years.

Amazon’s top line is forecast to rise about 12.5% for the quarter, a modest deceleration from the prior period as growth in its North America retail business softens. Amazon’s earlier tie-up with OpenAI in November helped alter perceptions of its AI positioning, contributing to the share gains noted in recent months.

Market implications and investor focus

The upcoming earnings calendar will be judged less on headline AI spending and more on how that spending influences product monetization, cloud capacity, advertising dynamics and cost structures. Investors will be watching revenue trajectories, margin trends and any commentary on AI-related capacity constraints or chip cost pressures. With billions being allocated to AI development and infrastructure across the sector, the next round of quarterly reports will be a critical checkpoint for firms and the market as a whole.


Key takeaways will include whether AI investments are starting to deliver scalable revenue growth and whether supply-side constraints or component cost increases are pressing on profit margins. The results could determine investor appetites for further aggressive capital allocation into AI over the coming year.

Risks

  • Uneven or delayed realization of revenue and cost benefits from AI spend could create bubble-like dynamics and depress technology sector valuations - Technology and Financial markets
  • AI capacity constraints and rising memory chip prices may limit near-term monetization and weigh on margins for companies reliant on cloud and PC demand - Cloud infrastructure, Hardware
  • Heavy hiring and compensation costs for AI talent could slow profit growth for firms like Meta despite top-line gains - Technology sector profitability

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