Shares of Compagnie Financiere Richemont SA climbed on Tuesday after Bernstein published a note suggesting the luxury goods group may report fourth-quarter FY26 sales growth above market expectations when it releases full-year results on May 22.
Bernstein said its correlation-driven analysis indicates upside relative to the consensus forecast for 4Q26 group sales growth of 9% at constant exchange rates (CER). The brokerage identified Japan as the region most likely to outperform the market’s current view.
The firm based its more constructive top-line outlook on three distinct datasets: Meritco-tracked shopping mall sales in Mainland China, Hong Kong retail statistics covering jewellery, watches and other items, and Tokyo department store jewellery sales. Taken together, these inputs form the backbone of Bernstein’s regional regression models and underpin its assertion that Richemont could surprise to the upside in 4Q26 CER growth.
"Overall, Richemont could surprise to the upside in 4Q26E CFx growth," Bernstein said in the note.
Bernstein also warned that current market expectations appear to assume a quicker convergence in growth rates between Richemont’s jewellery and watches business and LVMH’s fashion and leather goods on a similar comparable base, but added this expectation may be premature for 1Q26. The brokerage pointed to the gradual roll-out of JW Anderson’s Dior collection to stores as a factor that could slow any early catch-up.
In Japan specifically, Bernstein’s regression model versus Tokyo department store art, jewellery and precious metals sales produced an R squared of 0.8871. Using that relationship, the model implies growth materially above the current consensus forecast for the region of roughly 14% CER.
Bernstein cited data from the Japan Department Store Association showing Tokyo department store jewellery sales accelerated in calendar first-quarter 2026, rising 22% year-on-year, with a two-year stacked growth rate of 26%. By comparison, the prior quarter registered 14% year-on-year growth and a 15% two-year stack.
For Europe, Bernstein said its model based on French jewellery, watches and other retail sales — which has an R squared of 0.7899 against the regional dataset — also implies upside versus the consensus forecast of around 8% CER growth. The brokerage noted that, for its model to match consensus expectations, French jewellery and watch retail sales in March would have needed to decline by about 15%, assuming the January and February trends continued into that month.
Bernstein discussed Richemont’s exposure to the Middle East as well, estimating it at 8% to 10% of group sales. The brokerage said that a 15% decline in tourist demand for the region looks "elevated" when considering that total tourist exposure in Europe is below 50%.
For Asia-Pacific excluding Japan, Bernstein’s combined Meritco and Hong Kong retail sales model, with an R squared of 0.8454, signalled fourth-quarter growth broadly in line with consensus forecasts.
On valuation and recommendation, Bernstein assigns Richemont an "outperform" rating with a price target of CHF 200. The brokerage’s forecast for adjusted earnings per share for 2026 is €6.12, which corresponds to an implied adjusted price-to-earnings multiple of 28.2 times.
Reporting context
The note was dated Tuesday and arrives ahead of Richemont’s FY26 results announcement on May 22. Investors will be watching regional sales readouts closely, given the differing signals from respective retail datasets and the models Bernstein used to project possible outcomes.