Stock Markets March 30, 2026

Bernstein Sees Crypto Equities Approaching Cycle Low Ahead of Weak Q1 Results

Analysts highlight steep discounts on major crypto-related stocks and single out resilient business models

By Priya Menon COIN HOOD
Bernstein Sees Crypto Equities Approaching Cycle Low Ahead of Weak Q1 Results
COIN HOOD

Bernstein analysts argue that crypto-linked equities may be nearing a cyclical bottom as temporary weak sentiment and geopolitical uncertainty have pushed valuations to steep discounts. The firm points to discounted multiples for Coinbase, Robinhood and Figure, and expects a bottom to form into weak first-quarter earnings, while projecting growth drivers for each company through 2026-2027.

Key Points

  • Bernstein sees crypto-linked equities trading at steep discounts - about 60% below 2025 peaks - amid geopolitical uncertainty and weak crypto sentiment.
  • Company valuations cited: Coinbase at 12x 2027 earnings, Robinhood at 18x, and Figure at 25x estimated 2027 EBITDA; all three stocks are rated Outperform by Bernstein.
  • Bernstein expects Figure to reach $12.8 billion in loan volumes in 2026 and notes its monthly originations topped $1 billion in March; Robinhood revenue is projected to grow roughly 30% from 2025 to 2027, and Coinbase EPS is expected to rise about 23% in 2026.

Analysts at Bernstein said on Monday that crypto-related stocks appear to be trading near a trough, attributing current price weakness to a combination of geopolitical uncertainty and a short-term lull in crypto sentiment.

The firm noted that the market is applying unusually large discounts to crypto equities - roughly 60% below their 2025 peaks, according to Bernstein's analysis - even as the sector retains exposure to what the analysts describe as sizable, multi-year opportunity areas.

Sector opportunities and the near-term outlook

Bernsteinanalyst Gautam Chhugani emphasized that crypto businesses still connect to "trillion dollar markets with years of growth ahead," singling out prediction markets, stablecoins, tokenized real-world assets and crypto derivatives as areas that underpin long-term potential. In the near term, Chhugani wrote that he expects a bottom in crypto equities to materialize into weak Q1 earnings.

Valuations and company-level views

The note lays out specific valuation snapshots for key names. Bernstein reports that Coinbase is trading at 12 times estimated 2027 earnings, Robinhood at 18 times, and Figure at 25 times estimated 2027 EBITDA. The firm assigns Outperform ratings to all three names.

Bernstein highlights differences in business sensitivity to crypto trading cycles. The report states that crypto accounts for only about 20% of Robinhood's revenues, a factor the analysts see as lending resilience to its model. Figure is characterized by the firm as "a pure blockchain tokenization business," and Bernstein forecasts that Figure will reach $12.8 billion in loan volumes in 2026, noting monthly originations already above $1 billion in March.

For Robinhood, Bernstein models approximately 30% revenue growth between 2025 and 2027. The firm attributes that expansion to increased activity in prediction markets, a projected rebound in crypto volumes in the second half of 2026, and steady gains in non-trading revenue streams.

On Coinbase, Bernstein expects 23% EPS growth in 2026 driven by stablecoins, derivatives and prediction markets as the primary contributors to earnings momentum.

Conclusion

Overall, Bernstein maintains that the broader crypto-equities complex is nearing a cyclical floor and that select names offer discounted entry points, while acknowledging a weak near-term earnings environment.

Risks

  • Near-term earnings weakness - Bernstein explicitly expects a bottom to form into weak Q1 earnings, indicating potential short-term downside or volatility for crypto-linked equities.
  • Geopolitical uncertainty and temporary weak crypto sentiment are cited as current drivers of steep discounts, creating risk for recovery timing and investor sentiment across the crypto-equities complex.
  • Business sensitivity to crypto trading cycles varies by firm; companies with higher crypto revenue exposure could face greater earnings and cash-flow variability compared with names where crypto contributes a smaller share of revenues.

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