Summary: Bernstein has raised its price target on ASML Holding NV to 1,700 from 1,600 and adjusted its U.S.-listed target to $1,971 from $1,911, pointing to materially stronger DRAM-related demand and a sizable increase in expected EUV system deliveries to memory customers by 2028. The firm also raised near-term earnings forecasts and updated shipment and wafer-fabrication equipment spending projections across the DRAM supply chain.
On Thursday Bernstein reiterated an "outperform" rating on the Dutch lithography equipment maker and retained ASML as its top pick in European semiconductors while increasing its price target for shares listed in Europe and the U.S. ASML's U.S. shares closed at $1,399.42 on March 24, implying roughly 78.9% upside to Bernstein's revised U.S. target.
The brokerage raised its 2028 diluted EPS estimate to 50.40 from 45.27 and lifted the 2027 estimate to 42.60 from 40.56. Bernstein's 1,700 target is derived from applying a 40x price-to-earnings multiple to a Q508 EPS estimate of 42.7.
"This brings significant growth to ASML," the note said, as Bernstein now forecasts 92 EUV machine shipments in 2028, up from a prior projection of 79 units. The firm expects that 45% of those 92 units - or 44 machines - will be destined for DRAM customers, which would represent more than double the 18 units shipped to DRAM in 2025.
Bernstein attributed the revision to a broad pull-forward of clean room timelines from the leading memory manufacturers SK Hynix, Samsung and Micron. Its forecast for total incremental DRAM capacity additions is 246,000 wafers per month in 2026, rising to 330,000 in 2027 and to 425,000 in 2028, versus 145,000 in 2025.
Specific industry developments cited by Bernstein include SK Hynix opening its second M15X clean room in March 2026, two months ahead of schedule, and Micron raising its fiscal 2026 capital expenditure guidance to $25 billion from $20 billion. Samsung has resumed construction of its Pyeongtaek P5 fabrication facility, with a targeted completion date of July 2028 after a two-year pause.
On a broader spending basis, Bernstein now projects 2028 global ex-China DRAM wafer fabrication equipment spending of $75.9 billion, a substantial increase versus its own house-view model of $51.3 billion and up from $30 billion in 2025.
Bernstein also raised price targets for other equipment suppliers in Japan, lifting Tokyo Electron's target to y56,800 from y49,900 and naming Kokusai Electric its Japan semiconductors top pick while increasing that target to y8,620 from y7,080. The revised Kokusai target implies about 47% upside from its March 24 close of y5,879.
The note updates ASML's financial outlook, shipment expectations and the brokerage's supply-chain view in a way that assumes a meaningful acceleration in DRAM capital spending and clean-room buildout across multiple memory vendors. The changes translate into higher EPS forecasts, a higher P/E-based equity target and materially larger projections for industry wafer-fabrication equipment investment by 2028.
Implications for markets and stakeholders:
- Semiconductor equipment makers could see improved demand visibility if DRAM capacity expansion follows the timelines cited by Bernstein.
- Memory manufacturers' capex plans and clean-room completions are central to the revised spending and shipment forecasts.
- Equity investors in ASML and other equipment suppliers face significant upside in Bernstein's scenario, reflected in higher price targets and EPS revisions.