Berenberg has opened coverage on HBX Group International (trading at €6.34) with a buy recommendation and a target price of €10.30, representing approximately 62% upside. The brokerage's investment case rests on HBX's cash-generative operating model, proprietary technology capabilities and scope to capture a larger share of a fragmented B2B accommodation market.
The bank's estimate of shareholder returns is notable: roughly €500 million could be returned to investors via dividends and buybacks across the next three years, an amount the broker says equates to about one-third of HBX's current market capitalisation. Management has already set a 20% dividend payout ratio and launched a €100 million buyback programme, with further distributions conditional on balance sheet capacity and shareholder structure constraints.
Operational footprint and revenue mix
HBX connects about 100,000 directly contracted hotels and, in total, more than 250,000 properties to close to 60,000 distribution partners worldwide. Accommodation makes up roughly 91% of the group's revenue, with Europe accounting for nearly half of sales.
Berenberg's top-line outlook sees revenue climbing to €715 million in fiscal 2026 and reaching €812 million by 2028, corresponding to a compound annual growth rate of 6.6% over the period. The broker expects adjusted earnings per share to grow at a 12% CAGR and forecasts EBITDA margins above 58% through the forecast horizon.
Free cash flow to equity is projected to rise, reaching €314 million by 2028. The broker attributes the cash profile to HBX's asset-light operating model and structurally positive working capital, which together support both capital returns and debt reduction. Net debt is expected to trend down steadily and convert into a net cash position by 2028 under Berenberg's base case.
Competitive position and growth drivers
Berenberg argues that HBX benefits from scale and a high proportion of directly contracted hotels, which supports a higher take rate versus peers and aids market-share capture. The broker estimates HBX held a 1.44% market share in 2025, larger than those of several smaller listed competitors. Growth catalysts cited include expansion of intermediary booking channels, rising international travel demand, and continued consolidation among smaller B2B players.
Technology is a central plank of the thesis. HBX operates a cloud-native platform that, according to the broker, processes billions of daily searches and enables AI-driven pricing and customer-service functionality. Significant investment in automation and onboarding tools has reportedly improved operational efficiency and shortened onboarding times for partners.
Valuation and modelling
Berenberg's price target is derived from peer EV/EBITDA multiples, valuing HBX at about 5.8 times forward earnings. The broker also used a discounted cash flow model as a cross-check, which suggested an even greater upside under the same assumptions.
Risks and near-term uncertainties
The broker highlights geopolitical risk as a key near-term headwind. HBX shares have fallen approximately 14% since early March amid the Iran conflict. Berenberg's modelling assumes a base-case 6% negative impact to fiscal 2026 EBITDA from this uncertainty, while noting that current market pricing appears to imply a more pronounced hit.
Other risks flagged include potential disruption from artificial intelligence within travel distribution and the risk of disintermediation. Berenberg considers these threats manageable given HBX's network advantages, but they remain possible sources of volatility for both the company's operating performance and the broader travel-distribution sector.
Bottom line
Berenberg's initiation on HBX rests on a combination of strong projected cash generation, high anticipated margins, and technology-driven differentiation. The broker's forecast path points to meaningful shareholder returns, declining leverage and ultimately a net cash balance by 2028, although geopolitical shocks and structural changes in distribution present tangible near-term risks.