Berenberg has launched coverage of German eyewear retailer Fielmann Group AG with a buy recommendation and a price objective of €56, which implies roughly 38% upside from Monday's closing price of €40.35. The bank's assessment rests on a discounted cash flow valuation and the view that shares are trading near decade lows despite the company showing stronger margins, returns and dividend yields than peer companies.
In its analysis, Berenberg highlights valuation metrics that it regards as depressed when compared with adjusted 10-year averages. The group trades at a one-year forward price-to-earnings multiple of 16.4x and at an enterprise value to EBITDA of 7.2x, which Berenberg calculates as discounts of 33% and 45% respectively relative to its ten-year adjusted norms.
Fielmann has expanded from a primarily domestic optician business into a broader vision care platform with operations across 15 countries, including a growing footprint outside its DACH home market. Approximately 30% of the group's revenues now originate outside the DACH region. The company serves about 29 million customers through an omnichannel model that pairs digital sales with a physical network of more than 1,200 stores.
With a 56% unit market share in Germany, Berenberg identifies international expansion as the primary lever for multi-year growth. Under Fielmann's Vision 2035 strategic plan, management targets €4.0 billion in revenue by 2030, up from €2.3 billion in 2024. That trajectory implies a compound annual growth rate of around 10% through 2030.
Management's geographic ambitions include growing the share of revenues generated outside Germany to roughly 50% by 2030. Execution of that plan is expected to be supported by new store rollouts in Poland, Spain and Italy, together with the build-out of a U.S. platform. Berenberg singles out the U.S. opportunity as providing “meaningful upside optionality.” Fielmann entered the U.S. via the €103 million acquisition of SVS Vision in 2023 and the €279 million purchase of Shopko Optical in 2024, creating a combined 223-store network with an estimated 4% regional market share.
Management has set a U.S. sales target of $1 billion by 2030, up from an estimated $300 million in 2025. Berenberg models further productivity improvements and calculates that productivity gains alone could add about $55 million in sales if optometrist exam volumes rise to peer levels.
On profitability, the bank points to rapid improvement in U.S. adjusted EBITDA margins, which rose to 14.7% in the first half of 2025 from 2.1% a year earlier. Management is targeting a U.S. adjusted EBITDA margin of 23-25% by 2030. At the group level, margins are recovering after an investment-heavy period. Using a post-IFRS 16 basis, adjusted EBITDA margins bottomed at 13.3% in 2022 and increased to 15.9% in 2024.
Management's margin target is 25% on a post-IFRS 16 basis, which Berenberg notes is roughly equivalent to 19-20% on a pre-IFRS 16 basis. The bank flags that further productivity gains and lower central costs could push margins higher than current guidance.
Fielmann is also diversifying beyond optical retail. Audiology represented 6% of 2024 revenues and management expects it to grow to around 10% by 2030. Separately, eye health services are projected to generate more than €100 million in sales as they scale.
On near-term financial projections, Berenberg forecasts revenues of €2.45 billion in 2025, €2.62 billion in 2026 and €2.78 billion in 2027. The bank expects EBITDA margins to rise to 23.8% by 2027. For 2026, Berenberg projects earnings per share of €2.68 and a dividend of €1.74, which it says implies a 4.9% dividend yield.
Berenberg highlights several risks to its thesis. These include the potential for slower-than-expected international scaling, execution challenges in the U.S. business, and the impact of persistent wage inflation. These risks could affect growth and margin trajectories if they materialize.
Summary - Berenberg initiated coverage with a buy rating and a €56 target for Fielmann, pointing to valuation discounts to ten-year averages, growth through international expansion including the U.S., and a recovering margin profile as core drivers. The bank models revenue growth to €4.0 billion by 2030 under Vision 2035 and anticipates further margin improvement to management targets.
Key points:
- Valuation: One-year forward P/E of 16.4x and EV/EBITDA of 7.2x, trading at meaningful discounts to adjusted 10-year averages.
- Growth strategy: International expansion and U.S. platform build-out under Vision 2035 targeting €4.0 billion revenue by 2030 and roughly 50% of revenues sourced outside Germany.
- Margin recovery: Group adjusted EBITDA margins recovering from a 2022 trough, with management aiming for 25% post-IFRS 16 margins and further upside from productivity.
Risks:
- Slower international scaling could impede revenue and profit growth - affecting retail and cross-border expansion plans.
- Execution challenges in the U.S. business may limit the expected upside and delay attainment of the $1 billion sales target - impacting the U.S. retail and services segment.
- Persistent wage inflation could pressure margins and operating costs - affecting overall profitability and cash flow durability.