Barclays analysts framed Verizon Communications Inc's upcoming first-quarter results as a pivotal read on the company’s ability to execute on a subscriber recovery plan that targets 750,000 to 1 million postpaid phone net additions. The bank cautioned that market expectations have risen following recent competitive promotions and a reset in the stock.
According to Barclays, Verizon carried aggressive wireless promotions from the fourth quarter of 2025 into the first quarter of 2026. In addition, after the Frontier transaction closed in January, Verizon extended free six-month broadband offers within the Frontier footprint. Those actions are central to Barclays’ view that the company must show meaningful year-over-year improvement in postpaid phone net adds beginning in the first quarter.
Barclays acknowledged that the first quarter is typically seasonally weak for Verizon, but still expects subscriber metrics to improve markedly year over year - including relative to the gains seen in the fourth quarter of 2025. The analysts also flagged the outlook for churn: they expect churn to remain elevated through the first half of the year, though noted that a smaller proportion of customers exit contracts in the first quarter, which should provide some relief to churn measures.
The bank highlighted a roughly $100 million hit to service revenue in the quarter stemming from refunds issued for service blackouts, which will weigh on pricing metrics.
On broadband, Barclays said Verizon will perform a base adjustment related to Frontier to account for the approximately 20 days in the quarter prior to Verizon’s ownership. The Frontier promotional activity is expected to support faster broadband growth versus the roughly 85,000 to 100,000 additions Frontier had recorded in the first quarter in recent years.
Finally, Barclays noted a potential offset in fixed wireless access (FWA) growth: heightened wireless churn could slow FWA additions because increases in wireless churn are likely to influence FWA churn as well.
Contextual notes
- Barclays positions the first quarter as a key test of Verizon’s subscriber strategy amid persistent promotional intensity.
- Promotions span wireless and broadband offerings, including free six-month broadband for customers in the Frontier footprint after January closing.
- Service revenue and pricing measures will reflect a roughly $100 million refund-related reduction tied to blackout-related credits.