Bank of America has revised down its outlook for U.S. economic growth in 2026, citing the impact of persistently higher crude prices. Economists at the bank lowered their real GDP forecast for 2026 from 2.8% to 2.3%, attributing the change principally to elevated energy costs.
Despite the weaker growth outlook, the bank left its S&P 500 earnings estimate unchanged. BofA strategists kept the 2026 S&P 500 earnings forecast at $310, a level that implies 13% year-on-year earnings growth. The bank’s view is that energy expenses, while a clear headwind for some sectors, make up only a small share of total operating costs across the index.
Market positioning and sentiment
On the sentiment front, BofA reported a modest decline in its Sell Side Indicator (SSI) in March. The SSI, which measures the average recommended equity allocation among Wall Street strategists, fell from 56% to 55.7% - the first reduction in more than six months. The drop coincided with a geopolitically driven pullback in equities: the S&P 500 fell 5% for the month, which the bank described as the index’s worst monthly performance in a year.
BofA noted the 30 basis point retreat in the indicator was about one-fifth the magnitude of the SSI decline that followed the April 2025 tariff announcement. Even after the March dip, the SSI remains closer to a Sell reading than a Buy. The gauge sits 1.9 percentage points from the Sell signal and 4.4 points away from the Buy threshold. Historically, prior market peaks have tended to push the indicator above 59%.
At its current level, BofA says the SSI points to a projected 12-month S&P 500 price return of 12.5%.
Consensus estimates and valuation
Broader analyst expectations also moved in March. S&P 500 2026 earnings estimates increased by 2% over the month, lifting consensus year-on-year growth expectations to 17%. Valuation metrics have moderated from recent highs: the S&P 500’s forward price-to-earnings ratio now stands roughly 15% below its late-October peak.
On price targets, BofA’s year-end S&P 500 objective of 7100 implies an above-average 9% price return from current levels, an outcome the strategists say contrasts with their earlier, more cautious outlook.
Implications
The bank’s assessment underscores a divergence between macroeconomic sensitivity to higher energy prices and the direct influence of those prices on corporate earnings at the index level. While sectors with high energy intensity are likely to absorb more immediate cost pressure, the overall operating-cost share of energy across the S&P 500 appears limited enough for the bank to keep its earnings forecast intact for 2026.