Jefferies released its latest measures for the travel registered nurse market on Thursday, reporting a 2.3% week-over-week decline in the Aya Demand Index following a 2.8% increase the week before. The index remains roughly 36% below pre-COVID levels, according to the report.
At the same time, openings listed through Aya Healthcare rose 3.9% from the prior week, reaching 32,599 available positions. The divergence between the demand index and open roles points to a mixed near-term picture in staffing activity.
The JEF Bill Rate Index, which aggregates several rate sources, inched up 0.1% week-over-week to approximately $2,210 per week, reversing a 0.2% decline recorded the previous week. Jefferies also indicated the bill-rate series reflects projected quarterly increases of 1.1% for the first quarter of 2026 and 0.2% for the second quarter of 2026.
Jefferies noted the Aya Index has accumulated an 11% gain over the past five weeks. That advance follows a 10% pullback stretched across nine weeks, which itself came after an initial 1.7% rise on January 6, 2026. The firm interprets the recent stability and upward movement as evidence that the standard post-winter seasonal spike and subsequent pullback have finished.
Separately, guidance from AMN Healthcare for first-quarter 2026 calls for quarter-over-quarter revenue growth of 4% to 6% in its Nurse and Allied segment, excluding business related to strikes that the company expects during the quarter.
Key statistics from the release include:
- Aya Demand Index: -2.3% week-over-week; about 36% below pre-COVID levels.
- Aya Healthcare job postings: +3.9% week-over-week to 32,599 positions.
- JEF Bill Rate Index: +0.1% week-over-week to roughly $2,210 per week; projected quarterly increases of 1.1% for Q1 2026 and 0.2% for Q2 2026.
- Aya Index cumulative move: +11% over five weeks following a prior 10% nine-week pullback.
The data set provides market participants with a snapshot of demand, supply of posted assignments, and bill-rate movement in the travel nurse market as it moves through the seasonal cycle.