New supply-chain intelligence collected by TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo suggests ASML Holding NV may record revenues well above current market consensus in both 2026 and 2027. The Dutch lithography equipment maker is forecast to earn between 38 billion and 40 billion in 2026 and between 45 billion and 47 billion in 2027 - figures that exceed prevailing estimates of 34-36 billion and 41-43 billion for those years.
The basis for Kuo's more bullish outlook is Carl Zeiss SMT's planned expansion of optical production capacity, according to the analyst's supply-chain surveys. Zeiss is expected to raise extreme ultraviolet (EUV) optics capacity by 20-25% year-over-year in 2027 and to expand capacity for higher-priced immersion deep ultraviolet (DUV) optical systems by 40-50% year-over-year in 2027.
Those capacity gains translate into a higher shipment profile for ASML. For 2026, Kuo's survey responses indicate ASML will ship approximately 67 EUV units and 355 DUV units, surpassing market expectations of roughly 53-55 EUV units and 310-320 DUV units. Looking toward 2027, with Zeiss' ramp factored in and bookings reportedly filled, ASML is projected to ship 80-85 EUV systems alongside 380-400 DUV systems.
A key demand driver cited in the analysis is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC). Kuo reports TSMC has revised its 2026 EUV orders upward twice in response to strong demand for 2-nanometer process technology - moving from an initial order of 22 units to 25 units last October and now to 28 units.
ASML's product pipeline is also a component of the outlook. The company is planning to introduce a new immersion DUV model, the NXT:1965i, in the fourth quarter of 2026. The NXT:1965i is described as a less advanced variant of the 1980i series, designed to comply with U.S. export controls while serving the needs of Chinese memory chip manufacturers. Kuo's analysis anticipates that the new model will help drive roughly 40% year-over-year growth in Chinese procurement of higher-priced immersion DUV equipment in 2027.
Additional upside to ASML's shipment and revenue trajectory could come from several sources noted in the supply-chain work:
- Potential price increases for EUV and DUV systems amid constrained supply.
- Ongoing order revisions from Chinese memory suppliers that could lift demand.
- Possible incremental demand from Intel - while Intel has not placed official orders, it has begun discussions with ASML about additional bookings that could add 20-30 EUV systems over 2026-2027, including 3-5 High-NA EUV systems.
Kuo's report underscores that, based on current capacity plans from Zeiss SMT, available production is largely booked for 2027 for both EUV and immersion DUV families, reinforcing the projected shipment ranges. The interplay between optics capacity, end-customer ordering behavior, the rollout of the NXT:1965i, and potential pricing movements are central to the upside scenario laid out in the survey findings.
Context and implications - The supply-chain-derived forecasts point to a materially stronger top-line outlook for ASML across the near term, contingent on Zeiss' planned capacity expansions and sustained order flow from major customers. The arrival of the NXT:1965i is expected to influence procurement patterns in China while preserving compliance with export restrictions.