Stock Markets March 25, 2026

Asian equities climb as oil softens and US-Iran engagement fuels hopes of de-escalation

Broad gains across the region follow reports of a US peace proposal to Iran and a sharp drop in oil; Australia inflation data adds nuance to central bank outlook

By Hana Yamamoto
Asian equities climb as oil softens and US-Iran engagement fuels hopes of de-escalation

Asian stock markets rose broadly as oil prices fell and reports that the United States had sent Iran a 15-point plan lifted hopes of a ceasefire and reduced concerns about energy supply disruptions. Major regional indexes advanced, supported by follow-through from Wall Street futures and a retreat in crude prices. Australia’s consumer inflation cooled slightly in February, while Chinese and other Asian markets posted moderate gains.

Key Points

  • Regional equities gained across Asia, led by a nearly 3% rise in Japan's Nikkei 225 and a 2.3% increase in TOPIX.
  • Reports that the U.S. sent a 15-point plan to Iran and comments from President Trump suggesting active negotiations contributed to hopes of de-escalation.
  • A sharp fall in oil - Brent crude fell more than 6% and dropped below $100 a barrel - supported markets in energy-importing economies by easing inflationary pressures.

Asian equities posted broad-based gains on Wednesday as traders responded to weaker oil prices and reports that Washington had delivered a 15-point peace plan to Iran, raising the possibility of reduced conflict in the Middle East and fewer disruptions to global energy flows.

Markets also took cues from Wall Street futures after major U.S. indexes slipped overnight, contributing to a generally more risk-on tone across the region.

Key moves in regional markets included:

  • Japan's Nikkei 225 advanced nearly 3%, while the TOPIX index rose 2.3%.
  • South Korea's KOSPI climbed 1.7%.
  • India's Nifty 50 added 1.3%.
  • China's Shanghai Composite and the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 each rose 1%.
  • Hong Kong's Hang Seng edged 0.2% higher.
  • Singapore's Straits Times Index gained 0.4%.
  • Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index jumped 2%.

The shift in sentiment followed reports that the U.S. had put forward a 15-point plan aimed at ending the war, which market participants interpreted as increasing the prospects for a ceasefire and potentially easing risks to oil supplies. U.S. President Donald Trump said Washington was "in negotiations right now" with Iran, adding that Tehran was "talking sense" and appeared eager to reach a peace deal. He had earlier described discussions as "productive." Iranian officials, however, have denied that any talks are taking place, underscoring the persistent uncertainty around the diplomatic process.

Oil prices fell sharply alongside the market rally, with Brent crude slipping more than 6% on the day and moving below $100 a barrel. The retreat in crude was cited as a supporting factor for Asian equities, particularly in economies that import energy where cheaper oil can ease inflationary pressures and reduce the risk of more aggressive monetary tightening.

Australia's consumer price data added another element to market positioning. Headline consumer price index inflation eased slightly to 3.7% year-on-year in February, down from 3.8% previously, while underlying measures remained sticky. The data reinforced expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia may remain cautious on policy easing, with markets divided between a prolonged pause and the risk of further tightening if inflation proves persistent.

The combination of lower oil prices and tentative diplomatic signals appeared to lift risk appetite across Asian markets, with investors closely watching developments in the Middle East and incoming economic data for direction. While sentiment improved broadly, the mixed signals from political actors and persistent inflationary metrics in some economies mean the regional outlook remains sensitive to further shocks in energy markets and shifts in central bank expectations.

Risks

  • Iranian officials have denied that talks are taking place, creating uncertainty around the reported U.S.-Iran engagement and the durability of any de-escalation - this impacts energy markets and regional risk sentiment.
  • Sticky underlying inflation in Australia despite a slight slowdown in headline CPI could keep the Reserve Bank of Australia cautious on policy, posing risks for interest-rate sensitive sectors.
  • Volatility in oil prices remains a key uncertainty; renewed supply concerns could reverse the recent drop in crude and re-intensify inflationary pressures across import-dependent Asian economies.

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