Ascendis Pharma (NASDAQ:ASND) experienced a notable increase in its stock price, reaching an all-time high with gains up to 8.5%. This upswing followed a revision of its price target by RBC Capital on January 20th, which was raised from $245 to $250, based on the company’s updated guidance.
During a meeting with RBC Capital, Ascendis Pharma outlined strategic objectives for 2026, particularly emphasizing the continued momentum anticipated for its Yorvipath therapy. The company projects consistent patient additions throughout the year, without anticipating any slowdown in treatment uptake.
The company underscored that the U.S. market for Yorvipath remains significantly underpenetrated, with approximately 5,300 unique patients having initiated treatment compared to an estimated addressable market ranging from 70,000 to 90,000 patients. Moreover, Ascendis reported a low rate of treatment discontinuation, highlighting patient adherence to the therapy.
Expanding beyond the U.S., Ascendis identified the European market as a considerable growth opportunity. Despite the complexities posed by Europe's fragmented payer systems, the company views the potential total addressable patient population as substantially larger, between 150,000 and 200,000 patients, surpassing U.S. estimates. Ascendis indicated that eventual revenue distribution might approximate a 60:40 ratio in favor of the U.S. compared to ex-U.S. markets.
Regarding its next-generation weekly parathyroid hormone (PTH) treatment, Ascendis stated that Yorvipath will continue to be regarded as the standard therapy during the titration phase. However, they anticipate that 35 to 40 percent of patients, particularly those who have stabilized on treatment, may opt for a weekly dosing option during the maintenance phase. The company has developed an innovative TransCon technology designed to minimize peak-to-trough drug level fluctuations and is pursuing an accelerated clinical development path for this weekly therapy.
For its CNP product, the firm has scheduled a Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) date at the end of February. Ascendis highlighted the product’s benefits extending beyond linear growth metrics, notably improvements in arm span when combined with growth hormone therapy.
Financially, Ascendis reiterated its forecast of generating €500 million in operating cash flow by 2026 and surpassing €5 billion in top-line revenue by 2030. This projection outpaces current consensus estimates of approximately €3.5 billion. The company anticipates that Yorvipath could ultimately achieve peak sales in the range of €5 to €8 billion.