Stock Markets February 25, 2026

Analysts Call IBM Pullback a Buying Window Ahead of 2026 as AI Rivalry Stokes Volatility

Wedbush says market reaction to Anthropic’s Claude Code threat overstates risks to IBM’s core mainframe and services franchise

By Derek Hwang IBM
Analysts Call IBM Pullback a Buying Window Ahead of 2026 as AI Rivalry Stokes Volatility
IBM

Shares of International Business Machines (NYSE:IBM) plunged 13% on Monday - the steepest single-day decline in more than 25 years - after investors grew concerned that Anthropic’s Claude Code tool could speed modernization of COBOL-based systems that underpin parts of IBM’s business. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives maintained an Outperform rating and a $340 price target, arguing the selloff exaggerates competitive threats and creates a buying opportunity into 2026.

Key Points

  • IBM shares fell 13% in a single trading day - the largest decline in more than 25 years - after concerns about Anthropic’s Claude Code tool and its impact on COBOL modernization.
  • Wedbush analyst Dan Ives kept an Outperform rating and a $340 price target, arguing the market reaction overstated competitive threats and that IBM’s entrenched position in mission-critical environments supports its services and infrastructure monetization.
  • Ives highlighted IBM’s partnership with Anthropic to embed Claude within IBM’s software ecosystem and pointed to the company’s investments in data and hybrid-cloud as defensive strengths; sectors affected include enterprise IT, cloud infrastructure, and AI infrastructure.

International Business Machines (NYSE:IBM) experienced a sharp share-price decline on Monday, tumbling 13% - its largest one-day drop in over 25 years - as market participants reacted to mounting concerns about competitive pressure from Anthropic’s Claude Code tool. The tool’s potential to automate or accelerate modernization of COBOL-based legacy systems - an area connected to IBM’s longstanding franchise - was cited by investors as a catalyst for the selloff.

Despite the abrupt market move, Wedbush analysts signaled that the rout may be excessive. Dan Ives, the firm’s lead analyst on the stock, reiterated an Outperform rating and kept a $340 price target on IBM, saying the market’s response reflected a ‘‘sell first, ask questions later’’ approach to the perceived competitive risk posed by Claude Code.

Ives argued that fears the arrival of AI-driven code modernization tools will hollow out IBM’s COBOL-related business miss key commercial realities. He emphasized IBM’s deep entrenchment in mission-critical environments and noted that even if AI speeds code translation or modernization, enterprises will still need structured migration, compliance validation, and systems integration - segments where IBM already has established relationships and monetization levers in services and infrastructure.

"Even if AI accelerates code translation or modernization, enterprises still require structured migration, compliance validation, and systems integration such areas where IBM already has deep relationships in monetizing services and infrastructure," Ives wrote.

The Wedbush analyst also underscored that IBM’s mainframe value proposition is not limited to the COBOL language. According to Ives, the platform supports multiple programming environments and is engineered to provide high performance and security at scale. He distilled the modernization challenge succinctly: it "does not revolve around coding language, it revolves around the platform applications run on."

Adding nuance to the competitive debate, Ives pointed to IBM’s strategic collaboration with Anthropic to integrate Claude into IBM’s software lineup, embedding built-in security, governance and cost controls. He suggested this partnership reduces the odds that AI will simply displace IBM’s installed base, and instead makes it more likely that AI adoption could spur modernization demand that benefits companies positioned to deliver migration and integration services.

Beyond the immediate controversy over competitive dynamics, Ives highlighted IBM’s longer-term initiatives in data and hybrid cloud as strengthening its moat. He noted the company’s efforts to expand data capabilities and to position itself to benefit from increasing global spending on AI infrastructure.


This combination of a pronounced market selloff and a positive analyst stance underpins Wedbush’s view that the current pullback presents a "great buying opportunity into 2026."

Risks

  • Competition risk: Anthropic’s Claude Code tool could pressure parts of IBM’s COBOL-related business if AI materially changes modernization workflows - impacting enterprise IT and software services.
  • Execution and migration uncertainty: Even with AI tools, the need for structured migration, compliance validation, and systems integration creates uncertainty for timelines and revenue realization in IT services and infrastructure.
  • Market volatility: Rapid negative investor reaction created a steep share-price decline, demonstrating sensitivity to AI-related competitive news and increased short-term risk for equity holders in the IT sector.

More from Stock Markets

Analyst: Memory-stock pullback looks like a buying opportunity, equipment suppliers stand to gain Mar 26, 2026 Goldman Sachs Says Recent Oil Price Rise Will Trim US Payrolls by About 10,000 Jobs a Month Mar 26, 2026 Shield AI Secures $2 Billion at $12.7 Billion Valuation to Expand Autonomous Warfare Software Mar 26, 2026 Jefferies Sees Robinhood as a 'Financial Super App,' Starts Coverage with Buy and $88 Target Mar 26, 2026 U.S. Envoy Reaffirms Support for Taiwan on Defence and Energy Amid Iran War Disruption Mar 26, 2026