Stock Markets January 29, 2026

Altria Projects 2026 Adjusted Profit Above Street Estimates as Price Increases Cushion Declining Volumes

Company leans on cigarette and oral tobacco price hikes while newer product categories face setbacks and slower demand

By Nina Shah MO
Altria Projects 2026 Adjusted Profit Above Street Estimates as Price Increases Cushion Declining Volumes
MO

Altria said it expects full-year adjusted earnings for 2026 to be modestly above analyst forecasts, driven largely by price increases across its cigarette and oral tobacco portfolio. The company reported weaker shipment volumes and mixed performance in newer product categories, and its shares traded lower in premarket activity.

Key Points

  • Altria expects adjusted earnings of $5.56 to $5.72 per share for 2026, with the midpoint above analysts' estimate of $5.58.
  • Q4 adjusted earnings were $1.30 per share, slightly missing the $1.32 consensus.
  • Traditional tobacco volumes continue to decline - smokeable product revenue fell 2.7% and cigarette shipment volume dropped 7.9% - while newer product categories face competitive and regulatory challenges.

Forecast and market reaction

Altria Group Inc. projected full-year adjusted earnings for 2026 that sit above the consensus estimate, attributing the outlook to price increases on its cigarette and oral tobacco products. The announcement came as Altria shares were trading about 2% lower in premarket sessions. Over the course of 2025, the stock has fallen roughly 10%.

Financial guidance and recent results

The company provided a 2026 adjusted earnings range of $5.56 to $5.72 per share. The midpoint of that range is slightly higher than the analysts' average estimate of $5.58, according to LSEG data. For the fourth quarter, Altria reported adjusted earnings of $1.30 per share, a touch below the consensus estimate of $1.32 per share.

Volume and revenue trends

Altria disclosed continuing declines in volumes for its traditional tobacco business. Smokeable product revenue fell 2.7% in the quarter, while cigarette shipment volumes were down 7.9% versus the comparable period.

New product categories and competitive dynamics

The company and its industry peers have pursued alternatives to combustible cigarettes - including e-cigarettes and nicotine pouches - as public health concerns and changing consumer preferences have weighed on conventional cigarette consumption. Those transitions have been uneven. Altria's attempt to expand into some of these newer categories has encountered obstacles, highlighted most recently by an import block on its NJOY e-cigarette brand tied to a patent dispute. Altria does not expect NJOY to return to the market in 2026.

The company also expects only limited impact from regulatory and enforcement efforts aimed at cracking down on an expanding market for unregulated vaping products in the United States - a factor that has damaged sales for both cigarettes and e-cigarettes at Altria and its competitors. Meanwhile, demand growth for its nicotine pouch brand On! has slowed amid intensifying competition, notably from rival products such as British American Tobacco's Velo.

Margin management

With sales of traditional tobacco products in decline and challenges growing for newer product lines, Altria has relied on price increases as a primary tool to protect margins. The company indicated those pricing actions are central to its ability to preserve profitability in the near term.

Leadership transition

Altria said Chief Executive Officer Billy Gifford will retire in May after more than five years leading the company. Finance chief Salvatore Mancuso is slated to succeed Gifford as CEO.


Note: This article reports the company's own guidance, recent quarterly results, product performance details, competitive references and leadership changes as disclosed by Altria.

Risks

  • Ongoing volume declines in traditional tobacco products could continue to pressure revenue and market share - this affects the consumer staples and tobacco sectors.
  • Setbacks in newer categories, including an import block on NJOY and slowed demand for nicotine pouches, create uncertainty for Altria's growth strategy in alternatives - impacting the tobacco and vaping-related sectors.
  • Enforcement actions against unregulated vaping products have already hurt sales of both cigarettes and e-cigarettes and may continue to affect industry top-line performance - relevant to consumer goods and regulatory-sensitive market segments.

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