Wednesday's sharp gap-up opening in U.S. stocks is an uncommon technical occurrence, BTIG says, and the short-term price action should determine whether the market continues higher or reverses course.
In a note, analyst Jonathan Krinsky laid out two historical signals that point in opposite directions and recommended a neutral stance until price action clarifies the market's intent.
Bullish historical pattern
BTIG identified only five prior instances since 2003 in which the S&P 500 ETF SPY produced what the firm defines as a "true gap" of at least 1.5%. The definition used is specific: the intraday low must be at least 1.5% above the prior day's intraday high. In those five occurrences, forward returns were positive across two-, four-, eight- and 12-week horizons. Median returns in the four-week and eight-week windows were 6.09% and 9.1%, respectively. According to BTIG, four of the five historical gaps remain unfilled to this day.
Bearish historical pattern
At the same time, BTIG flagged an alternative warning signal. Since 2003 there have been only three other occasions when SPY opened above both its 50- and 200-day moving averages and then closed below both the prior day - those dates were in December 2007, December 2015 and December 2018. Krinsky noted that "those three periods saw immediate declines of -13%, -16%, and -13% over the next few weeks."
BTIG emphasized that the market's resolution of this conflict tends to occur quickly. "In the bullish cases, the market made higher-highs in the next few days. In the bearish cases, the high was essentially the day of the gap and then swiftly moved lower," Krinsky wrote.
Regardless of which historical pattern ultimately proves relevant this time, the firm singled out software and business development companies as ongoing areas of concern.
What this means for investors
The competing historical signals create a narrow window in which short-term price action should reveal whether the gap-up is the start of a meaningful advance or a brief peak before a pullback. With one set of precedents showing consistent positive forward returns and another set tied to sharp declines, the immediate days of trading will be decisive.