Politics March 28, 2026

Vance Tops CPAC Straw Poll as Conservative Activists Signal Preference for 2028

Straw poll in Grapevine shows Vice President JD Vance with majority support; Marco Rubio places second amid caveats about representativeness

By Maya Rios
Vance Tops CPAC Straw Poll as Conservative Activists Signal Preference for 2028

At the Conservative Political Action Conference in Grapevine, Texas, Vice President JD Vance captured roughly 53% of votes in an annual straw poll, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio receiving about 35%. Organizers and observers caution that the poll reflects the views of CPAC’s conservative base and is not a definitive predictor of a party-wide nominee.

Key Points

  • Vice President JD Vance received about 53% of votes in CPAC’s annual straw poll held in Grapevine, Texas.
  • Secretary of State Marco Rubio placed second with approximately 35% of the poll vote.
  • CPAC draws heavily from the Republican Party’s conservative wing; its straw poll is a snapshot of core MAGA-aligned supporters but is not a definitive predictor of the eventual nominee.

GRAPEVINE, Texas, March 28 - Vice President JD Vance was the preferred choice of attendees at this year’s Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), according to the conference’s straw poll released on Saturday. Approximately 53% of those who cast ballots at the convention selected Vance.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio finished second in the CPAC tally, receiving about 35% of the vote. The outcome highlights the preferences among the event’s participants, a group drawn heavily from the Republican Party’s conservative wing.

CPAC, which staged this year’s meeting in Grapevine, Texas, serves as a major gathering point for Republican lawmakers, activists and those considering presidential bids. The conference’s annual straw poll is widely watched inside the party, though it is not necessarily a reliable indicator of who will become the eventual nominee.

Organizers and observers stress that the poll provides a snapshot of sentiment among core supporters of President Donald Trump’s Make America Great Again movement. Trump is currently serving a second term and is not eligible to run again in 2028, a fact the CPAC results implicitly acknowledge by focusing attention on other potential contenders.

While the straw poll offers a clear measure of favor among CPAC attendees this year, it does not purport to represent the broader Republican electorate. The gathering’s conservative composition means the results capture the outlook of a particular subset of party activists and voters rather than the full range of Republican primary participants.

For political observers and market participants monitoring shifts in party dynamics, the CPAC straw poll provides a timely indication of where influential conservative activists currently stand. That said, acknowledged limitations of the poll mean it should be treated as one data point among many when assessing the evolving landscape of 2028 presidential prospects.


Dateline: GRAPEVINE, Texas, March 28

Risks

  • The CPAC straw poll reflects a conservative subset of Republican activists and may not mirror broader primary or general-election preferences - this limits its predictive value for national outcomes. (Impacts political risk assessment for investors.)
  • Straw-poll results capture current sentiment at CPAC but do not account for changes in voter preferences over time or across different voter groups - adding uncertainty for forecasting candidate viability. (Affects how markets interpret political signals.)

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