Wolfe Research has pinpointed a narrow interval it believes is the most likely occasion for President Trump to reveal his selection for Federal Reserve chair.
Timing signal
Analyst Stephanie Roth wrote that the "most likely 90-minute window" for an announcement would occur during the January Federal Open Market Committee - or FOMC - meeting. Roth noted that this slot would be sensible, particularly if the president seeks to shift focus away from a Federal Reserve that did not cut interest rates.
Roth added that the nomination "could come as soon as this week, or within the next couple of weeks," and highlighted that Governor Miran's seat becomes vacant on Jan. 31. That vacancy, Wolfe Research argued, would logically be filled before the March FOMC meeting - a point underscored by the risk that Jerome Powell might remain on the Board after his term as chair ends.
Market reaction to candidates
Wolfe Research also surveyed market perceptions of the leading names under consideration. The firm reported that investors view Rick Rieder and Kevin Hassett as relatively dovish, while Christopher Waller and Kevin Warsh are perceived as more hawkish.
Within that characterization, the analysis said Hassett would likely cause a steepening of the yield curve, whereas Warsh would be more likely to flatten it. Roth emphasized that Hassett "would likely be the most market-moving pick," and that Rieder is seen as Wall Street's preferred option, alongside Waller.
Analyst caution and probabilities
Despite mapping these dynamics, Roth stated she does not "have strong conviction on who Trump will ultimately choose," noting there is no clear candidate who meets all of the president's stated criteria. Wolfe Research further suggested that the chances for Hassett should be higher than the roughly 6% probability implied by current betting markets.
These observations tie together timing, board vacancies, and market expectations without asserting a definitive outcome. Wolfe Research's framing centers on the convergence of a Jan. 31 vacancy, the January FOMC meeting window, and differing market read-throughs of individual candidates' monetary policy leanings.