Economy January 29, 2026

U.S. Trade Deficit Nears $57 Billion in November as Capital Goods Imports Surge

Record imports of capital equipment and computers push the deficit sharply higher; exports fall and goods shortfall widens

By Hana Yamamoto
U.S. Trade Deficit Nears $57 Billion in November as Capital Goods Imports Surge

The U.S. trade deficit almost doubled in November 2025 to $56.8 billion as imports climbed sharply, led by record capital goods purchases tied to computers and semiconductors. Exports retreated, particularly in goods, intensifying the goods trade shortfall and raising the odds that fourth-quarter GDP growth estimates will be revised down.

Key Points

  • The U.S. trade deficit rose 94.6% in November to $56.8 billion, the largest percentage increase since March 1992; economists had expected a $40.5 billion deficit.
  • Imports jumped 5.0% to $348.9 billion, with capital goods imports up $7.4 billion to a record, driven by computer and semiconductor purchases; consumer goods imports also increased, aided by pharmaceutical preparations.
  • Exports fell 3.6% to $292.1 billion, with goods exports down 5.6% to $185.6 billion; declines included industrial supplies, precious metals, and crude oil shipments.

The U.S. trade deficit widened substantially in November 2025, expanding 94.6% to $56.8 billion, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis and Census Bureau reported. The jump in the deficit represents the largest percentage increase since March 1992 and exceeded economists' expectations, which had centered on a $40.5 billion gap.

The release of the monthly trade statistics was delayed by a 43-day U.S. government shutdown. The data show that imports rose 5.0% in November to $348.9 billion, driven by strong gains in goods imports. Overall goods imports climbed 6.6% to $272.5 billion.

Capital goods were the standout category, with imports rising by $7.4 billion to a record high. The increase was led by gains in computer and semiconductor imports, consistent with elevated business spending on information technology equipment. Not all technology categories moved higher: imports of computer accessories fell by $3.0 billion during the month.

Consumer goods imports also strengthened, increasing by $9.2 billion. That rise was supported by pharmaceutical preparations, a category the report noted has experienced large swings that appear linked to U.S. tariff activity. In contrast, imports of industrial supplies decreased by $2.4 billion, while the catch-all category labeled "other goods" reached record levels.

On the export side, shipments fell 3.6% in November to $292.1 billion. Goods exports dropped 5.6% to $185.6 billion, with a $6.1 billion decline in exports of industrial supplies and materials the largest single drag. That deterioration reflected reduced shipments of non-monetary gold and other precious metals, and a decline in crude oil exports, which fell by $1.4 billion. Exports of consumer goods were also lower, decreasing $3.1 billion and led by a decline in pharmaceutical preparations.

The goods trade deficit widened 47.3% to $86.9 billion in November. While service imports edged down over the month, service exports reached record highs, partially offsetting the deterioration in goods flows.

Because trade contributed positively to GDP growth in both the second and third quarters of 2025, the abrupt swing in November could prompt forecasters to trim fourth-quarter growth estimates. The Atlanta Federal Reserve's current model projects fourth-quarter GDP growth at a 5.4% annualized rate, though some Wall Street banks have much lower estimates, running as low as under 3.0%.


Data points to watch:

  • Overall trade deficit: $56.8 billion, up 94.6% from prior month.
  • Imports: $348.9 billion, up 5.0%.
  • Goods imports: $272.5 billion, up 6.6%; capital goods surged $7.4 billion to a record.
  • Exports: $292.1 billion, down 3.6%; goods exports $185.6 billion, down 5.6%.

Risks

  • Reduced exports and a widening goods deficit may lead economists to lower fourth-quarter GDP growth estimates - this affects overall economic growth forecasts and sectors sensitive to export demand, such as energy and industrial materials.
  • Volatility in pharmaceutical preparations trade, possibly related to tariff dynamics, creates uncertainty for the pharmaceuticals sector and for trade balance stability.
  • Concentration of import growth in capital equipment tied to computers and semiconductors could indicate uneven trade-driven demand, which may have implications for technology supply chains and corporate capital expenditure expectations.

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