Economy April 10, 2026 02:05 PM

U.S. March Budget Shortfall Inches Up to $164 Billion as Refunds and Farm Aid Rise

Treasury reports modest uptick in deficit; major war-related spending largely pushed to future months while customs receipts soften after tariff ruling

By Jordan Park
U.S. March Budget Shortfall Inches Up to $164 Billion as Refunds and Farm Aid Rise

The U.S. federal deficit for March increased by $4 billion, or 2%, to $164 billion from a year earlier as higher tax refunds tied to new individual and corporate breaks and increased farm relief payments outpaced receipts. Military outlays linked to the conflict rose modestly, and the Treasury said many war-related expenditures will appear in later months. Customs duties fell in March following a court decision affecting broad global tariffs.

Key Points

  • March deficit rose $4 billion (2%) to $164 billion as higher tax refunds and increased farm relief pushed outlays above receipts - impacts government finance and fiscal policy monitoring.
  • Military and defense program outlays were up $2 billion (3%) to $65 billion in the first month of the conflict, but many war-related costs are expected in subsequent months - relevant for defense budgets and contractors.
  • Customs duty collections fell to $22.2 billion in March after a Supreme Court annulled broad global tariffs, down from $26.6 billion in February and below late-2025 monthly levels - affecting trade-related revenues.

The U.S. Treasury said on April 10 that the federal budget deficit for March widened to $164 billion, an increase of $4 billion or 2% compared with the same month a year earlier. The rise was driven in part by sharply higher tax refunds stemming from recent individual and corporate tax breaks, along with larger relief payments to farmers.

Receipts in March reached $385 billion, up $17 billion or 5% from March 2025. Outlays for the month totaled $549 billion, a rise of $21 billion or 4% from a year earlier.

Defense and war-related spending

The monthly data did not display a large near-term jump in spending tied to the conflict in Iran. Military and defense program outlays increased by $2 billion, or 3%, to $65 billion during the first month of the conflict. A Treasury official cautioned that many war-related costs - including expenditures such as replenishing weapons inventories - are expected to be recorded in later months rather than immediately.

Trade receipts and customs duties

Customs duty collections softened in March, a change the Treasury linked to the timing after the U.S. Supreme Court annulled the broadest set of global tariffs that had been imposed under an emergency law. Customs receipts were $22.2 billion in March, down from $26.6 billion in February and below the monthly totals in the low $30 billion range seen late last year. Nevertheless, customs receipts were higher than the $8.2 billion reported in March 2025.

Alternative accounting adjustment

The Treasury noted that after accounting for calendar-related adjustments to benefit payments, the March deficit would have been $250 billion, up $9 billion or 4% compared with March 2025. That adjusted figure reflects timing differences in benefit disbursements rather than changes in the underlying annual fiscal trajectory.


The monthly report highlights how timing and policy-driven tax changes can influence short-term budget dynamics. It also underscores the potential for future spikes in war-related spending once delayed outlays, such as inventory replenishments, are recorded.

Risks

  • Timing risk from delayed war-related outlays - defense spending and contractors may see larger budget impacts in future months when replenishment and other costs are recorded.
  • Volatility in customs duty receipts following the annulment of broad tariffs - trade tax revenue uncertainty could affect near-term federal receipts and sectors tied to imports.
  • Higher refundable tax impacts on deficit - increased refunds from individual and corporate tax breaks raise short-term fiscal pressures and could influence fiscal planning.

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