U.S. stock-index futures declined on Thursday following the prior day’s gains as investors reacted to mixed diplomatic signals from the Middle East and weighed the likelihood of a peaceful resolution. Conflicting statements from Washington and Tehran left traders uncertain about the prospects for reopening shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz and for a broader easing of hostilities.
U.S. President Donald Trump said Iran was eager to negotiate a deal to halt the fighting. That assessment contrasted with remarks from Iran’s foreign minister, who indicated Tehran was reviewing a U.S. proposal but asserted it did not intend to enter talks to wind down the conflict. The discrepancy in public statements from both sides contributed to a risk-off tone among investors.
"The relative calm in markets suggests some investor confidence that hostilities may eventually wind down, however slim that prospect remains," said Molly Schwartz, cross-asset macro strategist at Rabobank.
By 04:55 a.m. ET, futures were lower across major contracts: Dow E-minis had fallen 242 points, or 0.52%; S&P 500 E-minis were down 39.5 points, or 0.59%; and Nasdaq 100 E-minis slipped 177 points, or 0.73%. Wall Street’s main indexes had finished higher on Wednesday after Washington delivered a proposal to Iran through Pakistan and comments from Iranian officials suggested a possible receptivity to diplomatic offers, despite public denials of formal talks.
Analysts noted investors are attempting to balance the market’s earlier inclination to price a peace-driven rally against the ongoing elevated risk environment. "Investors are trying to price out the war and price in a peace rally ahead of time, but risks remain elevated," said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank.
The spike in oil prices linked to the conflict has renewed inflation concerns, which in turn complicates central banks’ decisions on interest rates. Money market traders have adjusted their expectations for U.S. monetary policy: according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, participants are no longer pricing in any Fed easing this year, after previously anticipating roughly two rate cuts before the Iran conflict erupted.
Investors will also be parsing domestic data and central bank commentary for further cues. The economic calendar includes weekly jobless claims, and remarks are expected from Federal Reserve Governors Lisa Cook, Stephen Miran, Michael Barr and Philip Jefferson.
On the corporate front, several individual stocks showed notable moves in premarket trade. Olaplex Holdings surged about 47% after Germany’s Henkel agreed to acquire the hair-care brand in a transaction valued at $1.4 billion. In contrast, shares of U.S.-listed gold mining companies eased alongside a more than 2% decline in bullion prices. Newmont fell 2.8%, Sibanye Stillwater lost 3.7% and Harmony Gold declined 3%.
The market backdrop remains driven by geopolitical uncertainty, energy price volatility and evolving expectations for monetary policy. Traders and portfolio managers continue to monitor developments in the Middle East, inflation readings tied to oil, and forthcoming commentary from Fed officials as they reassess risk exposures and positioning.