Economy March 25, 2026

U.S. Futures Rise on Ceasefire Reports; Tech and Chips Gain as Oil Eases

Markets rally on reports of a proposed month-long ceasefire with Iran while chipmakers and select tech names lead premarket gains

By Ajmal Hussain
U.S. Futures Rise on Ceasefire Reports; Tech and Chips Gain as Oil Eases

U.S. stock index futures climbed after media reports suggested Washington proposed a month-long ceasefire to Iran, reducing some investor fears about sustained energy disruptions. Oil prices slipped roughly 4%, supporting risk appetite. Market attention also focused on corporate movers including Arm, Intel, Nvidia, JD.com, Alibaba, Destiny Tech100 and Robinhood amid product launches, regulatory signals and buyback announcements.

Key Points

  • Futures rose after reports the U.S. proposed a month-long ceasefire with Iran, easing concerns about extended energy supply disruption - impacting energy and shipping-sensitive markets.
  • Oil prices fell about 4%, supporting broader risk appetite and benefiting equities, notably tech and chip sectors.
  • Several corporate developments drove stock moves: Arm’s AI chip launch lifted chip-related names; JD.com and Alibaba rose after regulators urged an end to a price war; Destiny Tech100 and Robinhood jumped on IPO filing reports and a buyback respectively.

March 25 - U.S. stock index futures rose on Wednesday following media reports that the United States had proposed a month-long ceasefire in its conflict with Iran, easing worries that the dispute would trigger prolonged disruptions to energy supplies.

The New York Times reported that Washington had sent Iran a 15-point plan aimed at ending the war, and Israel’s Channel 12 said the U.S. planned to discuss that proposal as part of a proposed ceasefire. Tehran has denied that any negotiations were underway, and Iran and Israel exchanged airstrikes on Wednesday.

Global markets drew relief from the accounts as traders hoped a breakthrough could help restore shipping through the strategically important Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices moved about 4% lower, a fall that supported broader risk-taking across equity markets.

Commenting on the geopolitical picture, Mike O’Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading, cautioned against assuming a quick end to hostilities: "While we don’t envision U.S. escalation going forward, we would also be surprised to see a near-term resolution... There could be a scenario where the combination of a resilient Iran and rising energy prices forces President Trump to escalate, but that does not appear imminent."

Analysts at UBS Global Wealth Management urged caution on the timing of any return to normal energy flows but expressed a baseline expectation that they would be restored without significant or lasting economic harm: "Investors should be cautious about assuming a swift resumption of energy flows, but our base case is that they will be restored without meaningful or lasting economic damage."

At 05:13 a.m. ET, futures contracts were notably higher: Dow E-minis were up 437 points, or 0.94%, S&P 500 E-minis were up 60 points, or 0.91%, and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 261.75 points, or 1.08%.

Wall Street’s main indexes had closed lower on Tuesday after a day of uncertain trading. A brief relief rally that followed President Donald Trump’s decision to postpone strikes on Iran’s power network had lost momentum.

The spike in oil tied to the Iran conflict has renewed inflation concerns and complicated central bank rate outlooks. Markets are no longer pricing in policy easing from the Federal Reserve this year, compared with two cuts that were anticipated before the conflict began, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

Corporate news also shaped premarket activity. U.S.-listed shares of Arm jumped 12.6% after the company unveiled a new AI data center chip that the company said is expected to generate billions of dollars in revenue. Other chipmakers moved higher as well, with Intel up 3.8%, Marvell Technology gaining 2.9% and Nvidia rising 1.3%.

Chinese internet stocks listed in the U.S. also advanced. JD.com and Alibaba each gained more than 4% after Chinese state media and a regulator urged the food delivery platform industry to end a bleeding price war, a signal investors treated as potentially constructive for margins across the sector.

In other notable moves, the Destiny Tech100 fund surged about 20% after a report that SpaceX aims to file its IPO prospectus as soon as this week; SpaceX is the fund’s largest equity holding. Robinhood Markets added 3.6% after the trading platform announced a new $1.5 billion share buyback program.

The market commentary included a note about AI-driven stock screening tools: ProPicks AI evaluates companies such as Intel using more than 100 financial metrics and highlights names based on fundamentals, momentum and valuation, with past notable winners cited by the service including Super Micro Computer (+185%) and AppLovin (+157%).


Overall, the immediate market reaction reflected a mix of geopolitical relief hopes, lower oil prices and company-specific news, with technology and chip sectors among the beneficiaries of the premarket rally.

Risks

  • Geopolitical uncertainty remains - Tehran denied negotiations and Iran and Israel exchanged airstrikes, which could reverse market calm and affect oil and shipping sectors.
  • Inflation and central bank policy uncertainty - the oil spike tied to the conflict has complicated the Fed rate outlook and markets are not pricing in easing this year according to the FedWatch Tool, posing risks to interest-rate-sensitive sectors.
  • Market sentiment could be fragile - relief rallies can fade quickly as seen after the postponement of strikes on Iran’s power network, exposing equities to swings in investor risk appetite.

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