Economy May 8, 2026 11:34 AM

Tinubu's Economic Changes Drive 66% Jump in Nigerian Markets

Stocks, bonds and the naira rally as reforms, credit upgrades and higher oil prices bolster investor confidence

By Jordan Park

Nigerian financial assets have rallied strongly across equities, government bonds and the currency after President Bola Tinubu implemented sweeping economic reforms. The stock index has surged 66% in dollar terms year-to-date and almost 200% over 12 months, while credit-rating upgrades and rising oil receipts have helped restore market confidence.

Tinubu's Economic Changes Drive 66% Jump in Nigerian Markets

Key Points

  • Equities surged: Nigeria's stock index is up 66% year-to-date in dollar terms and nearly 200% over the past 12 months, ranking second among 92 indexes tracked by Bloomberg.
  • Fixed income and currency gains: Local-currency government bonds have outperformed most emerging-market peers, and the naira is the second-best-performing African currency this year, behind Zambia's kwacha.
  • Policy and fiscal support: Removal of fuel subsidies and multiple exchange rates, IMF growth projections of 4.1% this year (up from 3.3% when Tinubu took office three years ago), credit-rating upgrades from Moody's and Fitch in 2025, and higher oil prices since the start of the Iran war have all bolstered investor confidence.

Nigerian financial markets have registered a broad-based recovery as investor sentiment improves following the implementation of President Bola Tinubu's economic reform agenda. Equities, local-currency government bonds and the naira have all strengthened amid what market participants describe as renewed confidence in policy direction.

The country's stock benchmark has risen 66% this year in dollar terms, the second-best showing among 92 indexes tracked by Bloomberg, trailing only South Korea's Kospi. Over the past 12 months the same index has climbed nearly 200%, a dramatic advance for investors tracking the market.

Beyond equities, local-currency government bonds have outperformed most emerging-market peers, providing additional evidence of improving demand for Nigerian debt. The naira has also been among the top-performing African currencies this year, ranking second on the continent behind Zambia's kwacha.

Tinubu's economic overhaul removed long-standing fuel subsidies and did away with multiple exchange rates that had previously left the currency overvalued and discouraged investment. Those policy shifts have been central to the narrative that underpins the recent return of capital to Nigerian markets.

International institutions have responded to the policy changes. The International Monetary Fund projects real economic growth of 4.1% this year, up from 3.3% when Tinubu assumed office three years ago. In addition, the reforms contributed to credit-rating upgrades from Moody's Ratings and Fitch Global Ratings in 2025.

Investors have been drawn back to Nigeria's capital markets in the wake of what are seen as more credible economic policies. The recovery has also been aided by rising oil prices since the start of the Iran war, which supplied extra budgetary support for a country that relies on crude exports for roughly one-third of government revenue.

Market participants continue to watch how sustained policy credibility and external factors such as oil prices will influence the outlook for Nigerian assets and public finances. For now, the combined effect of reforms, rating actions and stronger oil receipts has produced a notable rebound across stocks, bonds and the currency.

Risks

  • Dependence on oil receipts - Rising oil prices since the start of the Iran war have provided budget support, and the country depends on crude exports for about one-third of government revenue, creating vulnerability to oil-price swings.
  • Policy credibility must be maintained - Investors' return has followed the implementation of more credible economic policies, implying that a loss of credibility could reverse market gains.
  • Currency legacy issues - The prior use of multiple exchange rates left the currency overvalued and deterred investment, highlighting that lingering effects from past policies could still influence market perceptions.

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