Economy March 23, 2026

Thai Exports Rise 9.9% in February, Falling Short of Forecasts

Electronics and electrical equipment led gains while a surge in imports pushed the month into a $2.83 billion deficit

By Nina Shah
Thai Exports Rise 9.9% in February, Falling Short of Forecasts

Thailand's customs-cleared exports increased 9.9% year-on-year in February, driven by electronics and electrical equipment, the commerce ministry reported on Tuesday. While shipments expanded in the first two months by 18.9% and are projected to rise for the year, the February outcome undershot market expectations and came alongside a sharp rise in imports that produced a $2.83 billion trade deficit for the month.

Key Points

  • February exports rose 9.9% year-on-year, driven by electronics and electrical equipment - impacts exporters and technology-related manufacturing sectors.
  • Imports climbed 31.8% year-on-year in February, resulting in a $2.83 billion trade deficit - affects trade balance and sectors reliant on imported inputs.
  • Exports were up 18.9% in the first two months and are expected to rise over the full year; 2025 exports grew 12.9%, supported by front-loading ahead of U.S. tariffs - relevant to macroeconomic growth and export-oriented industries.

BANGKOK, March 24 - Thailand's customs-cleared exports grew 9.9% in February from a year earlier, the commerce ministry said on Tuesday, attributing the monthly rise largely to shipments of electronics and electrical equipment.

The ministry also reported that exports for the first two months of the year advanced 18.9% compared with the same period a year earlier and reiterated expectations that exports will increase over the full year. The February figure contrasted with a forecast rise of 15.8% in a recent poll and followed a 24.4% increase recorded in January.

Import activity strengthened markedly in February, rising 31.8% year-on-year, and the larger import bill resulted in a trade deficit of $2.83 billion for the month, the ministry said.

Looking back to 2025, the ministry noted that exports expanded 12.9% for the year, which was the strongest annual growth in four years. That pace was driven in part by front-loading of shipments ahead of the introduction of U.S. tariffs, the ministry said.

These data points underscore the uneven momentum in Thailand's external sector in the early months of the year: export volumes continue to grow, led by technology-related goods, but elevated import growth has widened the monthly trade gap.

Below are the headline figures released by the commerce ministry:

  • February exports: up 9.9% year-on-year, led by electronics and electrical equipment.
  • First two months of the year: exports up 18.9% year-on-year; ministry expects full-year exports to rise.
  • Forecast comparison: February result versus a 15.8% poll-based forecast; January had risen 24.4%.
  • February imports: up 31.8% year-on-year, producing a $2.83 billion trade deficit.
  • Annual 2025 exports: up 12.9%, the fastest pace in four years, attributed to front-loading ahead of U.S. tariffs.

The ministry's release provides a snapshot of external trade flows without offering new policy commentary. Observers will likely monitor coming months for signs whether export growth sustains beyond the effects of front-loading and how the import expansion evolves relative to shipments abroad.

Risks

  • Lower-than-expected February export growth relative to forecast could weigh on sentiment for exporters and sectors tied to external demand.
  • The sharp rise in imports and the resulting $2.83 billion monthly trade deficit may pose uncertainties for external balances and industries dependent on imported goods.
  • The 2025 export surge was partly driven by front-loading ahead of U.S. tariffs; a reversal of that effect could temper future export growth, with implications for export-focused manufacturers.

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