Overview
S&P Global has revised upward its inflation projection for Turkey, now forecasting an average inflation rate of 28.9% for 2026. This updated view replaces a previous estimate of 23.4% and is driven chiefly by an increase in energy costs, according to the ratings agency.
Energy dependence and exposure
The agency emphasized Turkey's substantial dependence on imported energy as a central factor behind the changed outlook. Net energy imports account for roughly 3.5% to 4.5% of Turkey's gross domestic product, a share that leaves the economy vulnerable to movements in global oil and gas prices. That exposure means shifts in those commodity markets can have an outsized influence on headline inflation.
Regional volatility
S&P Global said the revision comes amid energy price volatility tied to the Iran conflict, which has affected markets in the region. The agency identified that volatility in oil and gas markets as an important element shaping its higher inflation forecast for 2026.
Policy context
Turkey has been working to reduce inflation over recent years. The ratings agency noted that recent energy price conditions pose a fresh challenge to those efforts, complicating the task of returning inflation to lower levels. The higher forecast signals that energy-driven cost pressures are expected to play a material role in the inflation path for 2026.
Implications
While the revision centers on energy prices, it highlights a broader sensitivity of Turkey's inflation trajectory to external commodity price swings because of the country's reliance on imports for oil and gas. The interaction between global energy markets and domestic price dynamics is a key factor behind the agency's new estimate.
Data limitations
The agency's statement attributes the forecast change to rising energy prices and regional volatility connected to the Iran conflict. Beyond those points, no additional numerical forecasts, timing details, or policy responses were provided in the agency's summary.