Russia's Economy Ministry has revised down its near-term growth outlook, cutting the forecast for gross domestic product expansion in 2026 to 0.4% from an earlier projection of 1.3%, the Kremlin reported on Tuesday.
Alongside that adjustment, the ministry also lowered its expectation for 2027 growth to 1.4% from 2.8%. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak was cited as saying that activity was expected to rise to 2.4% by 2029.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov briefed reporters on the revisions and on the broader government stance toward the economy. Peskov said President Vladimir Putin has remained closely engaged with economic issues. He added that, despite the surrounding turbulence in global markets caused by the conflict in the Middle East, Russia could "talk confidently" of macro-economic stability.
Peskov also said the government had implemented the necessary measures to preserve economic stability. At the same time, he acknowledged that Russia's economy is not insulated from volatility in world markets.
Summary of official figures and commentary:
- The Economy Ministry revised the 2026 GDP growth forecast down to 0.4% from 1.3%.
- The 2027 projection was cut to 1.4% from 2.8%.
- Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak indicated growth may reach 2.4% in 2029.
- Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov emphasized presidential involvement in economic policymaking and said authorities could "talk confidently" about macro-economic stability while recognizing exposure to global market volatility driven by the Middle East conflict.
The statements from the Kremlin highlight a dual message: official forecasts have been trimmed for the near term, even as the government frames policy actions as sufficient to maintain stability. The comments also underscore acknowledgement from officials that external shocks - in this instance linked to the conflict in the Middle East - are a factor influencing Russia's economic outlook.
Officials' projections and public remarks will be watched for any further changes in policy or additional guidance from the Economy Ministry or the Kremlin. For now, the revised forecasts set a lower baseline for growth in the immediate years, with an expected recovery toward a higher growth rate by 2029 according to Deputy Prime Minister Novak's statement.