Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
2,048 total articles
A CIBC analysis by economists Ali Jaffery and Avery Shenfeld finds that Canada’s fiscal stance will provide a measured lift to growth rather than a rapid acceleration. While federal outlays have grown materially as a share of GDP, provincial governments are exercising fiscal restraint. The report estimates a slowly building fiscal impulse that adds…
The update mechanism for the widely used code editor Notepad++ was manipulated by a threat actor identified by researchers as a Chinese-linked cyberespionage group. The intruders accessed the project's update infrastructure beginning in June 2025 and retained some hosting credentials into December 2025, enabling distribution of a bespoke backdoor a…
A Federal Reserve senior loan officer survey shows U.S. banks expect demand for business loans to strengthen in 2026 across all categories, driven largely by expectations of lower interest rates and increased spending or investment. The survey found demand from large and medium firms rose in the fourth quarter while small-firm demand was flat. Hous…
OpenAI launched a mobile application for its Codex coding system, designed to let users manage multiple AI agents over longer periods and apply code to tasks like information gathering and analysis. The release is part of OpenAI's effort to increase market share in a coding-focused AI segment where competitors, particularly Anthropic's Claude Code,…
Gold and silver plunged in the sharpest two-session sell-off in decades, erasing much of recent gains. Analysts nevertheless view the decline as a correction rather than an end to the bull market, and major banks and traders retain forecasts for new record highs for gold over the coming months. Volatility and uncertainty for silver remain elevated.
Swiss National Bank Chairman Martin Schlegel described the current mix of near-zero inflation and 0% policy rates as a difficult environment for monetary policy. He reiterated that the SNB can use interest rates and foreign-exchange interventions to steer inflation back toward the 0-2% target band, signaled readiness to consider negative rates whil…
Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said President Donald Trump’s nominee for Federal Reserve chair, Kevin Warsh, faces a significant challenge in persuading members of the Federal Open Market Committee to follow his lead on monetary policy. Speaking at the Rotary Club of Atlanta, Bostic emphasized that gaining trust, demonstrating jud…
U.S. President Donald Trump said he reached a trade agreement with India under which New Delhi agreed to stop purchasing Russian oil and to increase purchases from the United States and potentially Venezuela. The announcement follows a series of tariff measures that culminated in a 50% duty on Indian goods shipped to the United States. The timeline…
U.S. President Donald Trump announced that the United States and India have concluded a trade agreement that lowers reciprocal U.S. tariffs on Indian goods from 25% to 18% and includes a commitment by India to purchase in excess of $500 billion of U.S. products across multiple sectors. The arrangement also contains a pledge by India to halt purchas…
The U.S. House of Representatives moved on Feb. 2 to consider legislation intended to end a short-lived partial government shutdown that began over the weekend, with a final vote scheduled for Tuesday. Key agencies including the Pentagon and the Department of Transportation saw funding lapse on Saturday as lawmakers grappled with immigration enforc…
France’s 2026 fiscal plan is set to pass as parliamentary no-confidence motions are expected to fail. The package seeks to narrow the deficit to 5% of GDP from an estimated 5.4% last year, after the government backed away from an earlier 4.7% target following concessions to the Socialist party. The plan combines extended levies on large firms, new …
Cboe Global Markets is in preliminary discussions with retail broker-dealers and market makers to relaunch binary options for individual investors. The proposed fixed-return contracts would pay a set amount or nothing, allowing traders to place yes-or-no bets on discrete outcomes. If launched, the product would compete directly with prediction-mark…
The administration is announcing Project Vault, a $12 billion public-private effort to acquire and store critical minerals to lessen U.S. dependence on Chinese supply chains and protect domestic manufacturers from potential disruptions. Financing will include $10 billion from the U.S. Export-Import Bank and $1.67 billion in private capital; purchas…
Investors directed substantial flows into exchange-traded funds tied to gold, other precious metals and gold miners in January, seeking safety amid geopolitical uncertainty, forecasts for a softer dollar and growing expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts. LSEG Lipper data show sustained inflows into metal ETFs and an unprecedented cumulative haul …
Economists at Barclays and Morgan Stanley contend that Kevin Warsh's expected elevation to Federal Reserve chair will not materially alter the central bank's monetary stance in the near term. They point to a resilient U.S. economy, persistent inflation, and a split Federal Open Market Committee as constraints on aggressive easing. Barclays still pr…
The pound remained close to $1.37 as market focus shifted to the Bank of England's policy announcement later this week. Sterling recently touched its strongest level since September 2021 before retreating amid a stronger U.S. dollar after a high-profile Fed nomination. Domestic manufacturing data showed improvement, but money markets largely expect…
UK manufacturing activity strengthened in January, with the S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index rising to 51.8 from 50.6 in December and narrowly exceeding the earlier provisional estimate of 51.6. The new orders component jumped to 53.2 from 50.2, its strongest reading since February 2022, supported by the first rise in export orders in four yea…
Germany's retail association HDE has forecast nominal revenue growth of 2% for 2026, which translates to just 0.5% after adjusting for inflation. The outlook follows a 3.8% rise in retail sales in 2025, or 2.7% when measured in real terms. HDE executive Stefan Genth described the sector as lacking momentum and pointed to geopolitical uncertainties …
Kevin Warsh, nominated to lead the U.S. central bank, has argued for a substantial reduction in the Federal Reserve's multitrillion-dollar portfolio of Treasury and mortgage bonds. While he contends that a smaller footprint would correct distortions and allow proceeds to be used for lower rates benefiting households and small businesses, market par…
Japanese retail investors poured just over 2 trillion yen into major foreign asset funds in January 2026, a slight increase from the same month a year earlier, according to Bank of America. The early-year rush reflects seasonal use of NISA allowances and a reallocation toward gold and global funds amid rising concern about inflation and fiat curren…
Investors face a packed week: the U.S. monthly jobs report will arrive alongside a wave of high-profile corporate results, led by Alphabet and Amazon, while Eli Lilly's quarterly update will shed light on the lucrative obesity-drug market. A sharp retreat in gold and silver has already altered market mood, and incoming labor data could influence Fe…
The European Central Bank meets as policymakers weigh the implications of a recent spike in the euro, renewed U.S. trade uncertainty and signs of domestic resilience. With the policy rate likely to remain at 2% for a fifth straight meeting, officials will focus on how exchange-rate moves, energy prices, German fiscal delivery and shifts in U.S. pol…
U.S. stock futures opened lower Monday while sharp declines in gold and silver weighed on sentiment across Asian markets. Bitcoin extended a weekend retreat below $80,000. Investors are positioning for a busy week of corporate earnings and economic reports, and are parsing implications of President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh for Federal Rese…
Euro zone factory activity remained in contraction in January for a third consecutive month despite a return of production growth, according to the HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI from S&P Global. The headline index rose to 49.5, driven by an output component that moved back above the 50 expansion mark, while new orders declined again and input cos…
Japan’s planned auction of 700 billion yen of 30-year government bonds, scheduled three days before polls open in a snap election, has become a focal point for investors weighing the fiscal direction signaled by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. Long-dated yields have been especially sensitive to talk of looser fiscal restraint, and recent trading has…
