Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
2,037 total articles
Market-implied odds for a U.S. Federal Reserve interest-rate increase by September sit near 75%, and traders now assign better-than-even chances of a move as soon as July. This marks a swift reversal from expectations earlier this month and last month, when markets and many Fed officials anticipated rate cuts. The change followed an escalation of t…
U.S. defense leaders have developed detailed plans to position ground forces in Iran if ordered, submitting requests and conducting meetings to prepare for detainee handling and deployment logistics. The White House emphasized that planning does not equate to a decision, while movements of Marine expeditionary forces and elements of the 82nd Airbor…
Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel warned that rising energy costs could spark broader inflationary pressures across Europe and said the European Central Bank must tighten policy if those 'second-round' effects materialize. The ECB held rates steady while lifting inflation forecasts and flagging growing price risks tied to the U.S.-Israeli war on I…
Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel cautioned that a sharp rise in energy prices could spread inflation across Europe and that the European Central Bank should tighten policy if that leads to so-called second-round effects or lifts longer-term inflation expectations above target. The ECB left interest rates unchanged this week but upgraded its infla…
Iranian authorities have grown increasingly unwilling to engage on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, prioritizing survival amid ongoing military strikes, according to people directly involved in high-level contacts with Tehran. Recent attacks on energy infrastructure and strikes on Iranian officials, including the killing of security chief Ali Larija…
Money markets have increased the likelihood of a Bank of Canada rate hike next month to over 20% and now price a total of 75 basis points of tightening by the end of the year. The shift follows geopolitical escalation after strikes on Iran on February 28, higher oil and LNG prices, and supply concerns for fertilizers that have revived inflation and…
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' researchers estimate that a Strait of Hormuz closure through June tied to the Iran war would cut annualized global growth by 2.9 percentage points in the second quarter. Their models trace how oil prices and GDP trajectories change if the chokepoint reopens after one quarter or remains closed for longer periods.
Brazil’s newly appointed finance minister, Dario Durigan, is recalibrating the ministry’s messaging and pausing contentious tax initiatives - including a public consultation on crypto taxation and a proposal to end exemptions on certain investment securities - while the country heads into a presidential election later this year, sources say. Duriga…
Two people familiar with private talks say Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev proposed a reciprocal intelligence pause: Moscow would stop transmitting precise U.S. military positions in the Middle East to Iran if the United States stopped passing intelligence about Russia to Ukraine. The offer, delivered to envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in Miam…
President Donald Trump on Friday publicly rebuked NATO allies for declining to participate in a U.S.-Israel military operation aimed at countering Iran, calling them "cowards" in a post on Truth Social. Several Western and allied governments issued a joint pledge to help secure passage through the Strait of Hormuz but said combat operations would n…
The U.S. Justice Department is conducting a criminal investigation into Colombian President Gustavo Petro over possible ties to drug traffickers, according to a recent report. At least two U.S. federal prosecutor's offices are involved, with investigators probing whether Petro met with traffickers and whether his 2022 presidential campaign accepted…
Brazil's cash reserves that reassure investors about the government's capacity to roll over debt have contracted as the Treasury increases market interventions to steady trading during a global market selloff. The liquidity cushion declined to 6.77 months in January from 9.33 months in September, remaining above the Treasury's three-month comfort t…
SoftBank Group is preparing to develop a major AI computing campus on federally owned land in Ohio, to be powered by an estimated $33 billion of natural gas-fired generating capacity and supported by $30-$40 billion in computing equipment. The planned facility is designed to draw about 10 gigawatts of power; turbines totaling 9.2 GW have been sourc…
U.S. defense officials report that the Pentagon is dispatching three warships and roughly 2,200 to 2,500 Marines to U.S. Central Command in the Middle East, marking a second significant Marine deployment within a week. The move follows President Trump's public statement that he does not intend to send American ground forces into Iran and comes as t…
Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said the Fed has commissioned an external review of the events that produced Silicon Valley Bank's abrupt 2023 collapse. Bowman described the episode as a failure of supervision and bank management, and reiterated her push to refocus examiners on core financial risks while restructuring ban…
Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said she favors three interest-rate reductions in 2026 to help support the U.S. labor market, while expecting robust economic growth this year and monitoring the possible effects of the war in Iran. Bowman described her outlook as more dovish than some fellow policymakers, praised recent pr…
U.S. equity mutual funds and ETFs experienced substantial net redemptions in the week to March 18, as concerns about rising oil, hotter-than-expected inflation and the Federal Reserve’s guarded posture reduced expectations for rate cuts this year. Outflows were concentrated in large-cap stocks, while bond funds, money market funds and industrial-se…
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller told CNBC he had intended to dissent at this week's policy meeting in favor of a rate cut after February's surprising loss of 92,000 jobs. He said developments in the Iran war - including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz - and a resulting oil shock, which he expects could keep energy prices elevated fo…
Retail sales in Canada climbed 1.1% in January to C$70.7 billion, driven mainly by a rebound in the automotive sector and broad-based gains across provinces and subsectors. Core retail measures, excluding fuel and vehicles, rose 0.9% while general merchandise retailers recorded their fourth straight monthly increase.
Bank of America economist Aditya Bhave says markets have 'nearly priced out Fed cuts for the year' and investors are asking what scenario would prompt the Federal Reserve to tighten further. BofA identifies three specific prerequisites for a rate increase - a stable labor market, higher core inflation, and continuity in Fed leadership - and ties th…
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller told CNBC that he had been willing to dissent in favor of a rate cut after the February jobs report, but that worsening inflation risks - tied to a continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz and potential oil-driven pass-through to core inflation - caused him to change his view. He said caution is appropri…
The Trump Administration on Friday put forward a national legislative framework intended to guide federal AI policy and called on Congress to pass comprehensive legislation addressing six priority areas: protections for minors, data center energy rules, intellectual property balance, safeguards against censorship, removal of regulatory hurdles and …
BNP Paribas expanded its exposure to originated synthetic significant risk transfers (SRTs) in the non-trading book to €66.7 billion from €46.5 billion at the end of 2024, a 43% increase. The move reflects a broader expansion of SRT activity across banks, which has drawn attention from European regulators asking lenders to favor transactions that r…
Market-derived measures of Fed policy odds have shifted quickly: overnight index swaps now put a 10% probability on a Fed rate increase by April and 20% by October. The change follows a sharp climb in two-year Treasury yields and rising energy prices tied to conflict in the Middle East, while recent PPI data came in above consensus. Fed officials h…
The U.S. State Department has launched a Bureau of Disaster and Humanitarian Response to coordinate American responses to natural disasters and humanitarian crises worldwide. The move completes a sweeping reorganization that absorbed the U.S. Agency for International Development into State after the agency was dismantled earlier this year. The new …
