Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
2,046 total articles
The Bank of England is set to delay a planned reduction in Bank Rate as policymakers weigh the inflationary risks from the conflict in the Middle East. With oil near $100 a barrel and gas prices elevated, the Monetary Policy Committee is widely expected to vote to keep Bank Rate at 3.75% at its March meeting. Economists now see inflation ending 202…
The Strait of Hormuz remains the focal point of Asian trading, with initial claims of a forthcoming multinational naval escort agreement giving way to reports that President Trump has only spoken to seven countries and secured no commitments. Concerns over the strait's effective throttling have prompted export controls on refined fuels across sever…
The Bank of Japan is expected to leave short-term interest rates unchanged at 0.75% at the close of a two-day policy meeting, while reiterating a bias toward additional rate increases. A weaker yen and an abrupt surge in oil following the U.S.-Israel war on Iran have intensified inflationary risks for Japan's import-dependent economy, complicating …
Markets widely expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise its cash rate by 25 basis points at the end of a two-day meeting on March 17, taking the cash rate to 4.10% after February's increase. Forecasters point to resurgent consumer inflation, a strong domestic economy and energy-market pressures linked to the U.S.-Israel war on Iran as drivers …
Economists polled expect Taiwan’s central bank to keep its policy interest rate at 2% at its upcoming quarterly meeting and to maintain that stance into at least the second quarter of 2027. Robust economic expansion, led by the technology and export sectors and supported by demand tied to artificial intelligence, has reduced near-term pressure to t…
The dollar remained close to a 10-month peak as markets entered a week dense with central bank policy meetings, including the Fed, ECB, BoE and BoJ. Traders are focused on how the Middle East conflict and higher oil prices could influence inflation and growth, while risk dynamics ripple across currencies such as the euro, sterling, the yen and anti…
President Donald Trump said discussions are under way with other countries to cooperate in keeping the Strait of Hormuz open, while Iran maintains the blockade in response to U.S. and Israeli attacks. Trump described the effort as modest in scope, repeated calls for China to act, and said U.S. strikes have degraded Iran's drone capabilities. Oil ma…
President Donald Trump told the Financial Times he could delay a planned summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping as he pushes Beijing to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz after Tehran effectively blocked the waterway amid recent hostilities. The comments followed high-level U.S.-China talks in Paris and come as Iran signaled it will keep the strait…
The U.S. administration plans to reveal as soon as this week that several countries have agreed to form a naval escort coalition to protect commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, according to U.S. officials. The move follows significant disruption to tanker traffic in the waterway during ongoing hostilities involving Iran and comes as …
Goldman Sachs analysts say a spike in oil tied to the Iran conflict and interruptions in tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz could subtract about 0.3% from global growth over the next year and raise headline inflation by roughly 0.5-0.6 percentage points, with a smaller impact on core inflation of 0.1-0.2 percentage points. The bank views t…
UBS cautions that recent market turbulence driven by geopolitical tensions and higher commodity prices is not, by itself, a sound reason for investors to abandon equities. The bank highlights historical patterns showing routine intra-year drawdowns, a high incidence of positive calendar years, and instances where volatility spikes preceded above-av…
U.S. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said Asia-Pacific allies reached $57 billion in agreements with American energy companies at the Indo-Pacific Energy Security Forum in Tokyo, covering 22 separate deals. The total was revised up from $56 billion after a post-conference agreement. Burgum emphasized efforts to expand U.S. energy exports to reduce r…
Analysts at Bank of America estimate that European insurers hold roughly 11% of their general account assets in private credit and private equity combined, with private lending at about 7% and private equity near 4%. When mortgages and real estate are counted, private asset allocations rise to about 27%, though much of that comprises higher-quality…
The International Energy Agency reported that governments have committed 271.7 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves to alleviate pressure on global crude markets. The move follows supply disruptions tied to the Iran conflict that have disrupted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a route that typically carries about 20% of the wo…
Morgan Stanley economists say that while a short-lived rise in oil and gasoline prices may have only a limited effect on overall U.S. spending today, a sustained disruption that keeps energy costs elevated would shave consumer purchasing power and likely reduce spending on durables and discretionary services. The burden would fall unevenly across h…
Gulf equity indices mostly closed lower on Sunday as the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran entered its third week, triggering concerns over regional stability and energy flows. Attacks on oil infrastructure and shipping around the Strait of Hormuz have lifted crude prices, producing mixed moves among major Gulf-listed names. Market declines extended beyon…
Investors enter a pivotal week with Federal Reserve policymakers meeting for the first time since U.S. and Israeli air strikes on Iran began, confronting how the resulting surge in oil prices and market volatility may alter expectations for interest-rate cuts this year. The Fed will release updated economic projections and host a press conference t…
A Bernstein report warns that the United States - currently the most 'overstored' developed market - may see between 2 billion and 6 billion square feet of retail space become redundant as online shopping captures a larger share of consumer spending. Retailers and developers are expected to close, repurpose or convert many locations into alternativ…
A Wells Fargo analysis warns that a sustained and substantial rise in oil prices could tip the U.S. economy into recession if it meaningfully reduces real incomes, forces prolonged changes in household and business behavior, and tightens financial conditions. While moderate price gains can stimulate energy-sector investment, the immediate hit to ho…
Goldman Sachs has reduced its short-term price targets for Japan’s TOPIX index, pointing to heightened geopolitical tensions and the prospect of higher oil prices. The bank cut its three- and six-month targets while leaving the 12-month forecast unchanged, and lowered earnings and growth projections for Japan amid expectations that elevated energy …
A series of retaliatory drone and missile strikes across the Persian Gulf has followed U.S. action on Kharg Island, targeting major population centers and American military sites. Iran said it carried out precise strikes on U.S. refueling aircraft and bases in Qatar, Bahrain, and the UAE after the U.S. struck Iranian military targets on Kharg Islan…
President Donald Trump has dismissed Iran's ceasefire proposals, saying they fall short of U.S. demands that Tehran fully abandon its nuclear program. The administration is pressing ahead with Operation Epic Fury and is prepared to escalate strikes on energy infrastructure if attacks on commercial shipping persist. The conflict has pushed the regio…
The U.S. Export-Import Bank has issued letters of interest for a combined $4.2 billion in financing to help Japanese and South Korean nuclear operators source low-enriched uranium (LEU) from California-based General Matter, a move announced at the Indo-Pacific Energy Security Ministerial in Tokyo. The package - plus parallel support for LNG and rec…
Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi faces significant political and legal constraints in responding to calls for naval protection of merchant shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. LDP officials say armed dispatches face "high hurdles," with minesweeper deployments off the table until active hostilities end. To blunt an immediate energy shock, To…
A Bernstein analysis warns that the recent escalation of hostilities in the Middle East will cause a concentrated but limited decline in luxury goods sales, driven by travel disruption and reduced tourist traffic. The region now represents about 6% of total sector sales; major groups such as LVMH, Richemont and Kering have the highest exposure at r…
