Economy May 11, 2026 02:12 AM

Outgoing Bank of Korea Board Member Urges Inflation-First Policy as Oil Prices Rise

Shin Sung-hwan says central bank should prioritise curbing inflation even at the expense of growth amid energy-driven price pressures

By Ajmal Hussain

An outgoing member of South Korea's monetary policy board said the central bank should place primary emphasis on controlling inflation after the war in Iran pushed up oil prices. Shin Sung-hwan warned the bank must act to minimise spillovers from elevated crude costs, even if that imposes economic pain, and highlighted risks from a growth boost concentrated in AI-related chips.

Outgoing Bank of Korea Board Member Urges Inflation-First Policy as Oil Prices Rise

Key Points

  • An outgoing Bank of Korea board member, Shin Sung-hwan, said controlling inflation should be the central bank's priority if inflation risks push it above the 2% target.
  • Shin warned that the Iran war-driven surge in oil prices makes rate cuts inappropriate for now and urged limiting spillovers from high crude prices even if it causes economic pain.
  • He noted that strong demand for AI-related chips is supporting growth and may continue for one to two years, while expressing concern about the heavy influence of a sector that represents about 10% of GDP.

SEOUL, May 11 - An outgoing member of South Korea's seven-member monetary policy board said the central bank should prioritise fighting inflation as energy costs rise in the wake of the war in Iran.

Speaking at a press conference the day before his term ends on Tuesday, Shin Sung-hwan said policymakers should be prepared to focus on inflation control if there is a risk of inflation deviating upward from the central bank's 2% target. "If there is a possibility of it deviating from our target of 2%, especially towards the upward direction, it is appropriate to focus on inflation, even if there is a significant trade-off between growth and inflation," he said.

Shin has been viewed as a policy dove on the monetary policy board and has recorded dissenting votes in favour of interest rate cuts at several meetings since the Bank of Korea last cut rates in May 2025. On Monday he said the recent surge in oil prices triggered by the Iran war has made it extremely difficult to contemplate rate reductions, and that the central bank's primary responsibility should be to contain inflation even at the cost of hardship for some sectors.

He cautioned that if oil remains around $100 per barrel, it is vital to limit the spillover effects, "even if it causes a significant pain to the economy, and that is the Bank of Korea's mandate," he said.

Consumer inflation accelerated to a near two-year high of 2.6% in April, a development that has increased expectations of possible interest rate increases later in the year to rein in rising price pressures.

Last month the central bank decided to keep interest rates unchanged and described a wait-and-see stance as appropriate, citing heightened uncertainty from the Iran war and the need to monitor its effects on both growth and inflation. The Bank of Korea's next policy meeting is scheduled for May 28.

Shin also addressed the current structure of South Korea's growth, noting that a boom in demand for AI-related chips has been a significant driver of robust economic expansion. He said that this chip demand upswing is likely to persist for another one to two years, but expressed concern about the outsized influence of a single sector that accounts for roughly 10% of gross domestic product on the headline growth figure.

Finally, Shin said he concurred with the assessment that the South Korean won is excessively undervalued, even after factoring in interest rate differentials with the United States.


Context and implications

The departing board member framed the Bank of Korea's mandate as one that requires decisive focus on price stability when inflation risks rise. His comments underline tensions the central bank faces between sustaining growth and preventing inflation from drifting above target amid external energy shocks and concentrated sectoral growth.

Risks

  • Persistently high oil prices - If oil remains near $100 per barrel, inflation could rise further, impacting consumer prices and prompting tighter monetary policy - sectors sensitive to energy costs such as manufacturing and transport are most affected.
  • Concentrated growth risk - Heavy dependence on AI-related chip demand, which accounts for roughly 10% of GDP, could create volatility in headline growth if that demand slows - technology and export sectors could be particularly exposed.
  • Policy trade-offs - Prioritising inflation control even at the expense of growth may cause difficulties for some sectors and raise the risk of slower overall economic activity if tighter policy is pursued.

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