U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters at the White House that "Were in negotiations right now," and said Iran had made a concession "worth a tremendous amount of money," without offering further specifics. He added: "It was a very nice thing they did." Iran has not verified that account. Instead, Irans official news agency cited an armed forces spokesperson saying the U.S. is "negotiating with itself."
The remarks contributed to a modest move: oil prices eased and Asian equities ticked higher during the regions trading session, though gains and losses were not large. The situation on the ground, however, remains tense. Israel struck Tehran on Wednesday, with semi-official Iranian reports saying a residential area was hit. Iran has denied it is engaged in direct talks to halt or pause hostilities.
Press reports have circulated about an American initiative. The New York Times reported that Washington delivered a 15-point plan aimed at ending the conflict. Israels Channel 12, citing three sources, said the U.S. was seeking a month-long ceasefire to allow discussion of the 15-point plan. A separate source familiar with the matter confirmed that the U.S. had sent a plan to Iran but offered no additional details.
Markets have been reluctant to move decisively in either direction for two main reasons: the possibility that negotiations lack substance or will fail to produce results, and the growing economic damage from prolonged hostilities. That uncertainty is visible in several areas of the global economy.
In the euro zone, private sector growth has nearly stalled this month, according to survey data, as inflation expectations have risen and delivery times have lengthened. Those developments are being read as evidence that the bloc is already experiencing a tangible drag linked to the U.S. and Israeli operations against Iran.
Across Asia, currencies have come under pressure amid concerns that damage to Middle Eastern oil and gas infrastructure will inflict lasting costs on energy-importing economies in the region. In response, South Koreas National Pension Service will work to raise its strategic hedging ratio over the long term to help stabilise the fragile won, Reuters reported, citing sources aware of the funds discussions with the government and the central bank.
Gold staged a partial recovery alongside the softer risk tone, but remains on track for its largest monthly drop since 2008. Once viewed as a conventional safe haven, the metal has been hit by profit-taking after a rapid two-year rally.
Meanwhile, cash holdings continue to swell. U.S. money market funds have increased by roughly $60 billion since February 28, pushing total assets to a new record of $7.86 trillion.
Key items to watch for the session include:
- News flow from the Middle East on any developments in talks or continued hostilities.
- European economic releases, including British CPI, the German IFO index, and European consumer confidence data.
- Corporate earnings, notably Carnival Corp, with the question posed whether CCL represents a buying opportunity.
These elements will likely influence how markets interpret the balance between geopolitical progress and the deepening economic costs of the conflict.