Economy March 23, 2026

Modi Says India’s Economy Remains Resilient as Middle East Conflict Disrupts Trade Routes

Prime minister tells parliament that fuel, fertilizer and coal supplies are sufficient amid disruptions tied to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran

By Jordan Park
Modi Says India’s Economy Remains Resilient as Middle East Conflict Disrupts Trade Routes

Prime Minister Narendra Modi told the lower house of parliament that India’s economic fundamentals are intact and that the country has adequate stocks of petroleum, fertilizers and coal to manage disruptions stemming from the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. Modi cited current strategic petroleum reserves and ongoing work to expand them, outlined arrangements for fertilizer and coal ahead of the summer season, and reiterated calls for secure shipping lanes and diplomatic resolution.

Key Points

  • Modi told parliament that India’s economic fundamentals remain strong amid disruptions from the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.
  • Strategic petroleum reserves currently exceed 5.3 million metric tons; work is under way to add 6.5 million metric tons of additional reserves.
  • Adequate arrangements have been made for fertilizer supply for the summer sowing season (June-July) and for coal to meet rising electricity demand.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi told parliament on Monday that India’s underlying economic position remains strong and that authorities have arranged sufficient supplies of petroleum, fertilizers and coal to handle disruptions arising from the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.

The conflict, which began last month, has already affected multiple sectors, including air travel, shipping and gas supplies, the prime minister said. He singled out the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz as a key channel-related issue. The strait is used to transport roughly 40% of India’s crude oil imports, underscoring its significance to Indian energy flows.

On fuel stocks, Modi said strategic petroleum reserves currently exceed 5.3 million metric tons. He told members of the lower house that work is underway to add further capacity amounting to 6.5 million metric tons, as part of preparations to manage any ongoing or future supply disruptions.

Modi also addressed agricultural inputs and power-sector needs. He said that authorities have made adequate arrangements to ensure fertilizer availability for the summer sowing season, which is due to start in June-July. For electricity demand, he noted steps to secure coal supplies to meet higher consumption as temperatures increase.

On diplomatic engagement, the prime minister spoke on Saturday with Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian, stressing the importance of keeping shipping lanes open and secure during the war. The government has repeatedly called for dialogue and diplomatic avenues to resolve the conflict.

India’s foreign relations, Modi pointed out, include historical cultural ties with Iran, strategic relations with Israel and close friendships with Arab countries. He used that diplomatic positioning to frame India’s calls for secure maritime routes and peaceful negotiations.

On the macroeconomic outlook, the National Statistics Office reported last month that the Indian economy is estimated to expand by 7.6% in the fiscal year ending March 2026. Growth is projected to be between 7% and 7.4% in fiscal year 2027.


Taken together, the prime minister’s remarks combined operational details on strategic stocks and sectoral arrangements with diplomatic activity aimed at limiting the conflict’s impact on trade and supplies. The statements sought to reassure markets and domestic stakeholders about preparedness across energy, agriculture and power sectors while underscoring the limits imposed by the regional security situation.

Risks

  • Continued conflict-related disruptions to shipping lanes - particularly the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz - which affects shipping, air travel and gas supplies.
  • Supply vulnerabilities for crude oil, given that about 40% of India’s crude imports transit the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Uncertainty in growth trajectory, as official projections show estimated growth of 7.6% for the fiscal year ending March 2026 and a projected range of 7% to 7.4% for FY27.

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