Economy February 3, 2026

Markets Stabilise After Metals Rout; Trump’s India Tariff Deal and Australia Rate Hike Drive Moves

Asia session steadies as currencies and mining stocks rebound; ECB lending survey and U.S. earnings loom

By Caleb Monroe
Markets Stabilise After Metals Rout; Trump’s India Tariff Deal and Australia Rate Hike Drive Moves

Trading in Asian markets settled on Tuesday with metals prices finding support and equity markets generally recovering from Monday’s sharp falls led by gold and silver. A bilateral deal announced by U.S. President Donald Trump on Truth Social to cut tariffs on Indian goods in exchange for India halting purchases of Russian oil boosted the rupee and sentiment in India. Australia’s dollar climbed after its central bank raised rates by 25 basis points, joining Japan among developed economies that have recently tightened policy.

Key Points

  • A U.S.-India tariff understanding announced on Truth Social lifted Indian markets and strengthened the rupee by more than 1%, despite lacking detailed terms or timing.
  • Australia’s central bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points, sending the Australian dollar up more than 1% and increasing market bets on an additional May hike; inflation remains above target and the labour market is tight.
  • Metals stabilisation helped mining stocks, with rare earth miners gaining further support after plans for a U.S. strategic stockpile of critical minerals backed by $10 billion in seed funding were announced; Chinese internet stocks showed weakness amid talk of gaming tax rises.

Markets adopted a firmer tone in the Asia session on Tuesday as metals stabilised and equities retraced some of the heavy losses seen a day earlier when declines in gold and silver weighed on sentiment. Tokyo and Seoul led gains in the region with notably sharp rebounds.

Indian stocks rallied after U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social a deal to reduce tariffs on Indian goods in exchange for India ceasing purchases of Russian oil. While the announcement provided a clear boost to investor confidence, it included few concrete details and offered no timeline for implementation. The news alone was sufficient to push the Indian rupee higher by more than 1% [FRX/][EMRG/FRX].

Currency markets elsewhere also reacted. The Australian dollar rose by over 1% after the Reserve Bank of Australia delivered a 25-basis point interest rate increase. The move made Australia one of the few developed economies, alongside Japan, that have recently raised borrowing costs. The tightening was widely anticipated by markets and was justified by policymakers against a backdrop of inflation running above target and a tight labour market. Traders subsequently increased the odds on a further policy move in May, with the market implying roughly a 75% chance of another hike.

Precious metals were attempting to regain footing after the turmoil that affected markets the previous day. Silver and gold showed signs of stabilising, which in turn supported mining shares, particularly in Australia. Rare earth miners received an additional tailwind from President Trump’s announcement of plans to create a strategic stockpile of critical minerals, supported by $10 billion in seed funding from the U.S. Export-Import Bank. That development helped lift mining equities.

Chinese internet stocks experienced volatility as market speculation about a potential tax increase on gaming weighed on the sector. That uncertainty added to a mixed regional picture despite the broader recovery in equities.

Market participants will be watching several scheduled items that could shape sentiment later in the session and through the week. Key events include the European Central Bank bank lending survey, which may provide insight into credit demand across the euro area, and remarks from Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook - correction - the item originally listed as Fed Bowman speaks. In the corporate calendar, U.S. earnings that could influence market direction include results from PayPal, Pfizer and Marathon, with AMD, Amcor and Mondelez reporting after the market close.

Separately, Elon Musk said SpaceX has acquired his artificial-intelligence startup xAI in a deal described as record-setting, a move that brings his AI and space initiatives under a single corporate umbrella.


What to watch next

  • ECB bank lending survey - potential signals on European credit demand
  • Fed Bowman speaks - remarks that could influence U.S. rate expectations
  • U.S. corporate earnings from PayPal, Pfizer, Marathon, and after the close AMD, Amcor and Mondelez

Risks

  • The U.S.-India tariff announcement included few specifics and no timing, creating uncertainty about implementation and the actual economic impact - this affects trade-sensitive sectors and currency markets.
  • Rumours or policy moves related to a potential tax increase on gaming cloud demand for Chinese internet equities and broader technology sector sentiment.
  • Inflation remaining above target and a tight labour market in Australia raise the risk of further monetary tightening, which could influence borrowing costs, consumer demand and financial markets.

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