World equity indices reached fresh highs on Monday as a sustained slide in the dollar coincided with a dramatic advance in precious metals, with gold topping the $5,000-an-ounce mark. Market participants entered the week positioned for an intense slate of U.S. corporate earnings and a Federal Reserve policy decision that together could shape near-term risk sentiment.
A column published today examines early indications that a U.S. productivity upswing may be extending beyond national borders, and asks whether elevated corporate spending on artificial intelligence is beginning to show measurable returns. The piece characterizes the evidence as still preliminary but notes that both investors and policy officials will be watching developments closely.
For readers looking to unpack the day’s market moves, a handful of recommended articles outline key themes:
- Dollar under fire again as investors reassess Trump policies, geopolitical risk
- U.S. rate check masks stiff hurdle to coordinated yen intervention
- Gold has more room to run as geopolitics, central bank buying fuel gains, analysts say
- 'Battle for the Fed' heats up to challenge rate horizon: Mike Dolan
- Wall St Week Ahead - Fed, big earnings week loom for markets as global tensions muddy outlook
Today’s key market moves
- Stocks: The MSCI All Country index set a new peak; the three major U.S. indexes posted solid gains while the Russell 2000 declined. Japanese shares fell by about 2% as the yen strengthened sharply.
- Sectors/Shares: U.S. technology climbed 0.8% and communications services rose 1.3%; consumer discretionary slipped 0.7%. Attention is shifting to a heavy calendar of corporate earnings this week.
- FX: The Japanese yen extended its rally after a rare check of dollar/yen rates by the New York Fed on Friday. The dollar index dropped to a four-month low. Sterling and the Australian dollar showed notable strength.
- Bonds: U.S. Treasury yields fell by as much as 3 basis points; a 2-year note auction went well. Long-dated Japanese government bond yields declined for a fourth consecutive day.
- Commodities/Metals: Precious metals staged a striking advance before some cooling. Silver gained 6% on the session after earlier climbing as much as 13%, while palladium rose 1% following intraday gains of up to 8%. Oil retreated.
Today’s talking points
Yen intervention speculation
Following the New York Fed’s rare action to check dollar/yen rates last Friday, market discussion intensified around the possibility, timing and mechanism of any direct yen-buying intervention. The dollar has fallen more than 3% since last Friday without any official selling being announced, a move analysts describe as substantial. There are arguments that coordinated intervention between Tokyo and Washington may not occur immediately. Still, if Japanese authorities seek to lock in the yen’s recovery from historic lows, they could resort to intervention similar to steps taken in late 2022 and again in 2024.
Silver and gold rush
January 26, 2026 marked a landmark session for gold as the metal surpassed $5,000 per ounce for the first time, a level far removed from the era of the "Washington Agreement" and prices near $250 per ounce about a quarter-century earlier. Some market participants, including SocGen and others cited in coverage, project the rally could continue toward $6,000 per ounce. Silver has shown an even more dramatic ascent, having crossed $100 per ounce on Friday for the first time and spiking as much as 13% on Monday before moderating to a 6% gain. Silver is up about 15% over the past three trading sessions and roughly 35% year-to-date. Observers attribute the advance to a mix of supply constraints, momentum-driven buying and a significant speculative inflow of hot money. Analysts warn a correction could be disorderly.
Big Tech earnings in focus
By some measures, U.S. technology stocks are lagging at the start of the year, particularly the largest-cap names. The Roundhill "Mag 7" ETF is flat year-to-date while the Russell 2000 has climbed about 8%. Raymond James Chief Investment Officer Larry Adam observes that mega-cap technology is experiencing its weakest start to a year relative to the S&P 500 since 2010. Adam argues that early-year underperformance is not necessarily alarming, noting that large technology firms have rebounded in recent years and that current valuations relative to the broader market are among the most attractive in years. Results and guidance from Apple, Microsoft and Meta Platforms due this week are expected to be closely watched and could meaningfully influence market direction.
What could move markets tomorrow
- U.S. consumer confidence (January)
- U.S. Treasury auction of $70 billion of 5-year notes
- U.S. corporate earnings, including Boeing, UPS, General Motors, UnitedHealth Group and RTX Corporation
- The Federal Reserve begins a two-day policy meeting
- G7 finance ministers hold a video conference call
Readers who want daily delivery of the Trading Day briefing can subscribe to the newsletter. Opinions expressed in the newsletter are those of the author.