European officials familiar with the matter say Iran has been encouraging the Houthi leadership in Yemen to be ready to renew operations against shipping in the Red Sea should U.S. military activity against Iran intensify.
People with knowledge of the discussions, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the topic, said Houthi leaders are weighing options for a more assertive campaign after the group fired ballistic missiles at Israel. Those same people described internal divisions among Houthi decision-makers over the degree of force to employ.
Sources described the internal debate as a partial reason the Houthis did not enter the broader conflict immediately, noting the group became involved about a month after initial hostilities began. The deliberations within Houthi leadership have therefore influenced both timing and the nature of their actions.
In a statement issued on Saturday, Houthi representatives said they would continue military operations until U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran and Iran-backed proxy groups, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, stop. The statement did not explicitly state an intent to target tankers or other ships moving through the Red Sea.
Officials from the United States and Saudi Arabia have informed European partners that, in their assessment, the Houthi leadership currently appears inclined to avoid additional escalation and to refrain from attacks on American and Saudi assets for the time being, according to the same people who requested anonymity.
Context and implications
The reporting highlights three discrete elements: Iran's alleged encouragement of the Houthis to prepare for maritime action contingent on U.S. escalation; clear divisions within the Houthis over how aggressively to respond; and public Houthi messaging conditioning continued operations on the cessation of U.S.-Israeli actions against Iran and its proxies, including Hezbollah in Lebanon.
While the Houthi announcement affirms an ongoing military posture, it stops short of identifying specific maritime targets. U.S. and Saudi assessments relayed to European allies suggest, for now, the group prefers to avoid widening the conflict to include American and Saudi assets.