Economy January 27, 2026

Indonesia Says 2025 GDP Likely Hit 5.2% Target Despite Flood Damage; 2026 Goal Kept at 5.4%

Finance ministry maintains 2026 growth projection as central bank monitors room for rate cuts while defending the rupiah

By Hana Yamamoto
Indonesia Says 2025 GDP Likely Hit 5.2% Target Despite Flood Damage; 2026 Goal Kept at 5.4%

Indonesia's finance minister signaled that the country likely achieved its 5.2% GDP growth target for 2025 despite significant flood-related damage late in the year, with growth appearing stronger in the fourth quarter. The government left the 2026 growth target unchanged at 5.4% for the $1.4 trillion economy. Bank Indonesia said it will watch for opportunities to ease monetary policy while intervening to support the rupiah when necessary.

Key Points

  • Finance minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa said Indonesia likely met its 5.2% GDP growth target for 2025 despite flood damage, with stronger growth estimated in the fourth quarter - impacts financial markets and overall economic outlook.
  • The government maintained a 5.4% growth target for 2026 for the $1.4 trillion economy - relevant for fiscal planning and investor expectations.
  • Bank Indonesia will watch for room to cut interest rates to support growth but has held the benchmark 7-day reverse repurchase rate at 4.75% since September and intervenes to stabilise the rupiah - affecting monetary policy and currency markets.

Indonesia's overall economic expansion is expected to have met the government's 5.2% growth goal for 2025 even after widespread destruction from floods late last year, the finance minister said on Tuesday. Growth appears to have accelerated in the fourth quarter, according to the same update.

The finance ministry also reiterated its target for 2026, keeping the forecasted growth rate at 5.4% for the economy, which is valued at $1.4 trillion. The comments were delivered by Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa at a meeting of Indonesia's financial stability board.

Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo said the central bank will continue to assess whether there is scope to reduce interest rates to help spur economic activity. He noted that policy rates have been left unchanged in recent months to support the stability of the rupiah.

Indonesia's currency has weakened this month amid concerns about the independence of the central bank. Governor Warjiyo said Bank Indonesia would act to help keep the currency stable, including through market interventions when necessary.

"In formulating monetary policy, we will always look at inflation, exchange rates, and economic growth data," Warjiyo said.

Bank Indonesia held its benchmark 7-day reverse repurchase rate at 4.75% last week, where it has remained since September. Between September 2024 and September 2025, the central bank reduced rates by a total of 150 basis points.

Governor Warjiyo expressed an expectation that the rupiah would stabilise and trend toward strengthening over time.


The statements from the finance ministry and the central bank come as policymakers balance objectives for growth and currency stability. Officials framed recent actions and targets as consistent with efforts to maintain economic momentum while addressing exchange-rate pressures.

Further monitoring of inflation, exchange-rate movements, and growth data will guide any prospective monetary policy adjustments, the central bank said.

Risks

  • Exchange-rate volatility - the rupiah weakened this month over concerns about central bank independence, posing risks to currency markets and import-dependent sectors.
  • Policy uncertainty - future monetary easing depends on evolving data for inflation, exchange rates, and growth, which creates uncertainty for banks and interest-rate-sensitive industries.
  • Natural disasters - recent floods caused widespread destruction late last year; such events can disrupt activity and present downside risks to sectors tied to domestic consumption and infrastructure.

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