The government’s annual economic survey, presented in parliament on Thursday, sets a growth range of 6.8% to 7.2% for the fiscal year that begins in April. That outlook represents a moderation from the 7.4% growth the finance ministry projects for the current fiscal year.
Authored by Chief Economic Adviser V. Anantha Nageswaran and his team, the survey describes the domestic economy as remaining on a stable footing. However, it cautions that slower expansion among India’s trading partners and tariff-driven disruptions to trade have the potential to dampen export performance and investor sentiment.
The report reiterates the government’s projection of 7.4% growth for the ongoing fiscal year, a figure that surpasses the 6.3% to 6.8% range forecast in last year’s survey. According to the authors, investment and consumption are expected to strengthen as firms adjust to recent reforms enacted by the government.
This survey serves as a prelude to the federal budget scheduled for Sunday. The budget is expected to focus on measures to sustain rapid economic growth while providing buffers against geopolitical shocks and uncertainties arising from tariff policies abroad.
Despite the combination of relatively fast growth and low inflation cited in the report, foreign investors have continued to reduce their holdings of Indian equities. The survey notes that a record capital outflow in 2025, driven by stretched valuations, subdued corporate earnings and geopolitical concerns, has not been fully reversed.
The document also highlights recent developments in international trade policy. In August, President Donald Trump imposed a 50% tariff on certain Indian imports to the United States. More recently, India and the European Union concluded a long-delayed agreement that will cut tariffs on most goods, with the stated aim of increasing two-way trade and decreasing reliance on the U.S. New trade arrangements with Britain, New Zealand and Oman were finalised by New Delhi in recent months.
The survey frames the budget as a tool to both bolster sustained growth and guard against external shocks, while noting that trade-policy shifts and slower global demand are tangible risks to export growth and market sentiment.
- Report: Annual economic survey projects 6.8%-7.2% growth for fiscal 2026-27.
- Domestic outlook: Economy described as stable; reforms expected to lift investment and consumption.
- External risks: Slower trading partners and tariff-induced trade disruptions could weigh on exports and investor flows.