Analysts and market consensus anticipate that the National Bank of Hungary (NBH) will keep its policy rate unchanged at its Tuesday meeting, reflecting a cautious stance amid mixed signals from recent data. UBS and Bloomberg consensus forecasts both indicate a pause in policy action despite the central bank's dovish pivot announced in December.
Recent inflation data on the services sector has shown an upward move that is likely to influence the NBH's decision-making. Services inflation accelerated to 6.8% year-over-year in December, up from 6.5% in November - a metric Governor Varga had previously identified as one the bank would watch closely.
Compounding concerns about the timing of any easing, December fiscal figures revealed a notable deterioration in the government's cash position. The fiscal deficit widened to 6.5% of GDP in cash terms, overshooting the government's stated 5% target. That larger-than-expected shortfall reduces the margin for near-term monetary easing, according to the interpretation of market observers.
UBS analysts expect the NBH to preserve language consistent with the possibility of rate reductions in the near term - potentially in February or March - while nevertheless leaving policy rates unchanged at this week's meeting. This approach would keep options open without committing to an immediate easing cycle.
Attention among market participants will shift to several near-term information releases. On Friday, fourth-quarter GDP numbers are due, with Bloomberg consensus pointing to 0.8% year-over-year growth. Investors and policymakers are also awaiting the NBH's chartbook, a publication that was postponed from last week and could provide additional context on the bank's assessment of incoming data and the transmission of policy.
Given the mix of rising services inflation and a swollen cash deficit, the NBH appears set to prioritize data dependence and communication clarity as it balances the timing of any future rate cuts. The coming GDP print and the delayed chartbook are likely to be treated as decisive inputs for the bank's near-term planning.