Economy March 6, 2026

Hassett Sees 4% Growth This Year Despite February Payroll Drop

Economic council member urges focus on averages as job report shows a 92,000 decline versus expectations for a 58,000 gain

By Sofia Navarro
Hassett Sees 4% Growth This Year Despite February Payroll Drop

National Economic Council member Kevin Hassett told CNBC he still expects the U.S. economy to grow 4% this year, even after February nonfarm payrolls fell by 92,000 when forecasts had pointed to an increase of 58,000. Hassett recommended assessing job-market trends using averaged data and cited a pickup in productivity. He also said there are no current discussions about releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and noted that litigation and private arrangements will shape how tariff refunds are handled.

Key Points

  • Hassett expects 4% U.S. economic growth this year despite February's payroll decline - sectors impacted include macro-sensitive markets and interest-rate-sensitive assets.
  • February nonfarm payrolls fell by 92,000 versus consensus expectations for a 58,000 gain - labor-market analysis may shift toward using averaged data.
  • No current talks on releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and tariff refund outcomes likely to be decided through litigation and private arrangements - implications for energy and trade-exposed sectors.

National Economic Council member Kevin Hassett told CNBC on Friday that he continues to expect 4% economic growth this year, despite a headline payroll report that showed U.S. nonfarm payroll employment declined by 92,000 in February. That outturn contrasted with analysts' projections calling for an addition of 58,000 jobs.

Hassett urged observers to avoid placing undue emphasis on single-month employment figures, recommending instead that analysts and policymakers consider averages of the monthly data. He framed this approach as a way to see through volatility inherent in individual monthly reports.

In the same interview, Hassett said the broader economy is experiencing a productivity boom. He suggested that stronger productivity could help reconcile robust output growth with uneven monthly labor-market readings.

On energy policy, Hassett stated that there are no active conversations about a release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at this time. He did not indicate any planned changes to current reserve strategy.

Hassett also addressed the subject of tariff refunds. He said market participants should expect large stakeholders to contest the issue through litigation. Beyond courtroom action, he said private parties will determine how any refunds are administered and distributed.

The comments link several policy and market topics - growth expectations, labor-market measurement, energy reserves, and trade-related refunds - under a single interlocutor's forecast and guidance. Taken together, Hassett's remarks highlight his view that headline job volatility does not alter a brighter growth outlook and that policy responses on energy and tariffs are either not underway or likely to play out through legal and private-sector channels.


Article limitations - The reporting here reflects remarks made by the official during a televised interview and focuses strictly on the statements attributed to him about growth expectations, employment data interpretation, productivity, Strategic Petroleum Reserve discussions, and tariff refund mechanisms.

Risks

  • Volatility in monthly payroll reports could obscure underlying labor-market trends, affecting sectors tied to consumer demand and employment-sensitive assets.
  • Uncertainty around tariff refunds, with large parties expected to litigate, could create legal and cash-flow ambiguity for firms exposed to trade remedies or retroactive duties.
  • Lack of active discussion on Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases leaves energy markets subject to existing supply-demand dynamics without near-term policy easing.

More from Economy

Bank of America Sees Possible Near-Term Floor for Japanese Stocks, Flags Geopolitical Risks Mar 22, 2026 Barclays Says Private Credit Strains Fall Short of a 2008-Style Crisis Mar 22, 2026 Persistent Middle East conflict and energy shock weigh on fragile equities rally Mar 22, 2026 Israel Orders Destruction of Bridges Over Litani River, Increases Home Demolitions Near Lebanon Border Mar 22, 2026 Paper Wealth Favors Eurozone, Financial Wealth Tilts Toward U.S., UBS Says Mar 22, 2026