Goldman Sachs is pushing back against market expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in response to higher oil prices since the Iran conflict. The bank says traders are assigning too much weight to the risk that oil-driven inflation will make the Fed tighten policy further.
Markets have shifted sharply since the start of the Iran war: pricing now implies roughly a 45% chance that the Fed will hike in 2026, up from about 12% before the conflict began. Goldman analyst Manuel Abecasis contends that this jump overstates the genuine likelihood of additional increases.
Four reasons Goldman says further hikes remain unlikely
- Goldman describes the current supply shock from the conflict as "smaller and narrower" than the disruptions that have previously led to troublesome inflation.
- The bank highlights that the U.S. economy is less dependent on oil than it was in the 1970s, reducing the direct inflationary impact of rising crude prices.
- Disruptions related to the conflict are assessed as more contained than the broad supply-chain issues experienced during 2021-2022.
- Goldman points to the economy's starting conditions as a buffer: the labor market is softening, wage growth is below the pace consistent with 2% inflation, and inflation expectations remain anchored—factors the bank says make large spillovers into core inflation unlikely.
The bank also notes policy and market factors that argue against further tightening. The federal funds rate is already estimated to be 50 to 75 basis points above the Fed's own estimate of the neutral rate, and financial conditions have tightened by nearly 80 basis points since the conflict began, Goldman says.
Finally, Goldman reports that it found no meaningful historical relationship between oil price shocks and subsequent tighter Fed policy. "Our probability-weighted Fed forecast remains meaningfully more dovish than market pricing," Abecasis wrote.
Implications and market reaction
Goldman's view suggests that market-implied odds of future Fed hikes may be overstated given the bank's assessment of the supply shock, domestic demand and labor trends, and existing policy tightening. The bank's forecast for Fed moves is therefore more dovish than current market pricing.
Note: This article presents Goldman Sachs' analysis and market pricing statistics as reported in the available information.