Goldman Sachs issued a forecast for Switzerland that anticipates moderate expansion in 2026, contained inflation pressures and an unchanged short-term policy rate after a year marked by significant trade disruptions.
The bank noted that activity figures were affected in 2025 by an initial surge in exports ahead of U.S. tariffs, followed by a slowdown and subsequent contraction once Washington implemented a 39% tariff on Swiss shipments. Toward the end of 2025, activity indicators showed signs of stabilisation, and Goldman Sachs said a trade agreement reached with the United States in November - which limits tariffs to 15% - should help underpin activity going forward.
Goldman Sachs’ baseline for 2026 puts Swiss GDP growth at 1.2%, a pace slightly above the Swiss National Bank’s own forecast. The brokerage said the weaker performance in the second half of 2025 will weigh on the annual average for that year, while growth in 2026 is expected to run close to what Goldman Sachs estimates as potential output of 1.6%.
Looking further ahead, the firm raised its 2027 growth projection to 1.6%, up from a prior estimate of 1.4%. That upgrade stems from its U.S. economics team no longer anticipating that pharmaceutical tariffs will be implemented following the U.S. midterm elections, the brokerage said.
On inflation, Goldman Sachs expects persistently low but positive rates through 2026. The analysts said inflation stabilised near 0% in 2025 and that core inflation should average around 0.5% in 2026. Headline inflation is forecast to drift up toward about 0.6% by the end of 2026 and into 2027, broadly in line with the Swiss National Bank’s outlook.
The note highlighted that short-term inflation expectations have stabilised since the second quarter of 2025. It also cited firms’ wage growth expectations of 1.3% as consistent with an inflation rate near 0.5%.
Goldman Sachs said its inflation outlook is reinforced by an anticipated modest depreciation of the Swiss franc versus the euro. Although the franc has appreciated in nominal terms over recent years, the brokerage observed it has not strengthened in real terms. It also pointed to expectations for euro zone inflation to ease to 1.8% in 2026 and for the European Central Bank to refrain from further easing - factors the analysts believe will support the euro relative to the franc.
Against this backdrop, Goldman Sachs expects the Swiss National Bank to maintain its policy rate at 0% for the foreseeable future. The brokerage noted policy risks are tilted to the downside but stressed that the SNB has repeatedly set a high threshold for lowering rates below zero. According to the note, a sustained undershoot of inflation below 0% and a meaningful downgrade to the medium-term inflation forecast would be required before the SNB would consider introducing negative rates.
On the government bond market, Goldman Sachs’ rates strategists anticipate Swiss yields to climb gradually toward about 0.5%. Even with that rise, yields would remain the lowest among G10 sovereigns, the analysts said. They added that a slower recovery and weaker inflation could limit upside in long-term yields and keep them close to current forward levels.
Overall, Goldman Sachs frames its outlook for Switzerland as one of modest growth, low inflation and steady monetary policy, shaped by a combination of recent trade developments, currency dynamics and subdued domestic price pressures.
Summary
Goldman Sachs forecasts Switzerland will post 1.2% growth in 2026, with core inflation near 0.5% and the Swiss National Bank holding its policy rate at 0%. The outlook reflects 2025 trade disruptions and a November trade deal with the U.S. that caps tariffs at 15%.