Goldman Sachs & Co and Bank of America Corp have revised the timing of their forecasts for when the Federal Reserve will begin trimming interest rates, joining other Wall Street firms that now see cuts pushed further into the future. Both firms point to persistent inflation pressures and a surprisingly resilient labor market as reasons the Fed is likely to keep policy rates unchanged through at least the end of 2026.
Analysts cite the impact of the Iran war on oil markets as a factor that has elevated inflation expectations and influenced trader positioning. Those market moves have led traders to increase bets that the Fed will hold policy steady across 2026, with some market participants even pricing in the possibility of rate increases in early 2027.
The shift in forecasts echoes comments from several Federal Reserve officials. According to the analysts, some Fed policymakers - including two who dissented at the central bank's most recent meeting - have suggested the next policy move could be a rate increase rather than a cut, reinforcing the view that easing is not imminent.
April's labor report showed U.S. employers added more jobs than expected for a second straight month, a signal of ongoing strength in the jobs market despite the Middle East conflict. That report, combined with recent Fed commentary, has helped convince forecasters to delay anticipated rate reductions.
Looking ahead, investors will be watching upcoming inflation metrics closely. Consumer and producer price index readings due on Tuesday and Wednesday will be the next major pieces of data that could influence the Fed's path and market expectations.
In a Thursday note, Aditya Bhave, head of U.S. economics at Bank of America, summed up the bank's view: "The data simply don't warrant cuts this year. Core inflation is too high, and moving up. The solid April jobs report was the last straw, especially given hawkish Fedspeak." Bank of America has moved its forecast, now projecting that the Fed will not reduce rates until July 2027, a shift from an earlier call for September of this year.
Context and implications
The combined effect of stronger-than-expected payrolls and inflationary pressures tied to oil-market disruptions has clearly altered both institutional forecasts and market pricing. While Goldman Sachs' and Bank of America's revisions align with a broader market trend, the timing of future Fed moves remains dependent on the incoming inflation data and how Fed officials interpret labor-market strength.